2024 NFL Picks – Week 3: Bears at Colts

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 1-2 ATS in Week 1.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Eagles -6.5

Ravens -8.5

Chargers -5

49ers -5

The public got wrecked last week, only winning with the Chargers. The public is now 2-5 ATS.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

49ers -7.5

Chiefs -3.5

Chargers +2

Buccaneers -7

Packers +3.5

Raiders -5.5

Two road favorites, two home favorites, and two public dogs. I like how there’s a lot variety this week.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: If you look at the numbers, none of the Colts offensive players produced much of anything last week, except for maybe Alec Pierce. If you look closer, you’ll see why. Indianapolis was on the field for just 19 minutes, as the Packers sucked the life out of the game by running the ball down Indianapolis’ throat.

The Colts should be able to rebound. The Titans had success on the ground with Tony Pollard in the opener, so Jonathan Taylor projects well. It helps, of course, that Taylor has one of the best offensive lines in the business blocking for him.

Anthony Richardson should be able to do some damage as well. Richardson loves to throw bombs, and he’s protected well enough to do it. Aside from Montez Sweat, the Bears can’t really rush the passer, so Richardson will have plenty of time to take some downfield shots. The Bears have some liabilities in their secondary, as witnessed by Nico Collins’ massive game.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Caleb Williams was dreadful in the opener, but had a much better second performance, at least in the opening half. He wilted with some mistakes in the second half, but it was an improvement despite Keenan Allen being sidelined.

It doesn’t seem as though Allen will play, but he had the toughest outlook of any Chicago receiver in this contest. The Colts struggle to cover wideouts on the outside, so this is an area in which D.J. Moore and perhaps Rome Odunze will thrive. Indianapolis is missing its top outside cornerback and safety, and it also has some injuries to the defensive line, so Williams will have a cleaner pocket than he possessed in the first two weeks.

There’s a chance the Bears will be able to run the ball as well, given the DeForest Buckner injury. However, I don’t trust Chicago’s run blocking to do the same damage that the Packers were able to accomplish last week.

RECAP: I loved the Colts as a sleeper Super Bowl team heading into the season, but they’ve been ravaged by injuries. They were missing their top cornerback and safety last week, while Buckner and Kwity Paye were playing hurt. It sounds like Buckner may not be available for this game.

Williams should have an easier time against the Colts, as this is his easiest matchup to date. Conversely, the Bears have some problems with their defense, primarily when it comes to stopping the run, so Richardson and Taylor figure to perform well.

I’m not seeing a clear edge in this game. I’m leaning toward the Colts because I think this line is a bit shy of what it should be, but it’s difficult to factor in all of their injuries at the moment.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Keenan Allen missed practice again. Teven Jenkins also didn’t practice, so perhaps the Bears won’t have such a big edge in the injured players department.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Colts will have Julian Blackmon back from injury, but they could be without Michael Pittman Jr. and Laiatu Latu. Pittmsn missed practice Friday with multiple injuries, while Latu barely practiced all week. I still am leaning toward the Colts, but I’m nowhere near betting this game.

PLAYER PROP: I like D.J. Moore over 61.5 receiving yards. Moore had 36 and 53 receiving yards in his first two games, but dealt with extremely difficult matchups. This is a much easier one, as Indianapolis is down its No. 1 cornerback and some pass rushers. The best number is over 61.5 -115 at You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Michael Pittman Jr. and Laiatu Latu are active for the Colts, which is nice, but not enough for me to bet them. There’s no sharp action on this game. The best line is -1.5 -109 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -2.5.

Computer Model: Bears -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 58% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Colts -2.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.