2024 NFL Picks – Week 3: Chargers at Steelers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers are 2-0, thanks to a couple of great performances by J.K. Dobbins. Despite coming off an Achilles, Dobbins has been spectacular behind the Chargers’ rebuilt offensive line. He’s eclipsed the century mark twice, albeit the second instance occurring against a woeful Carolina defense.

Dobbins will have his work cut out for him in this matchup. The Steelers have great defensive personnel to stop the run. They currently rank third versus ground attacks after putting the clamps on Bijan Robinson in Week 1.

Justin Herbert will have to do more in this game than any other thus far. It helps that he’s well protected by his two tackles, as Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt have been tremendous through two games. They’ll be tested against the Steelers, however, and Herbert isn’t exactly healthy because he’s dealing with his plantar fascia.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Chargers also rate highly versus the run. In fact, they’re even higher than the Steelers, and also everyone else in the NFL. The numbers say they should be able to restrict Najee Harris, but I’m not sure if that will be the case. The Chargers have battled two weak running games – Zamir White, Chuba Hubbard – so Harris will offer a greater test.

The Chargers will also have to worry about Justin Fields as a running threat. I worry about the Charger linebackers being able to keep up with him, as Denzel Perryman is on the older side (32 soon).

Of course, the Chargers will be able to pressure Fields with their great edge rushers, provided that they’re healthy. Joey Bosa was on the field for just 14 snaps last week, so he may not play a full game. This would be huge for the Steelers, who replaced the awful Broderick Jones with Troy Fautanu last week. Fautanu was much better than Jones, but he’ll certainly be tested in this matchup.

RECAP: The general rule with Mike Tomlin is that you want to back him as an underdog and fade him as a favorite. As discussed last week, however, Tomlin has a winning spread record if he’s favored by a field goal or less, which is the case in this matchup.

Tomlin’s defense doesn’t appear to have a great matchup like it did in the first two weeks of the season. However, if Herbert isn’t at full strength off his plantar fascia, Tomlin could force him into a poor performance. The Steelers also should be able to limit Dobbins, which the Chargers’ first two opponents could not do. Again, Pittsburgh put the clamps on Robinson in Week 1, so stopping Dobbins shouldn’t be too difficult.

I may bet a bit on the Steelers, especially after seeing that the Chargers are huge public dogs. However, I worry that I’m not reading the Chargers correctly because I’m 0-2 ATS in their games, and I was way off last week. That could have just been a byproduct of the Panthers, however.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Justin Herbert was DNP in Wednesday’s practice because of an ankle. I’d have to believe that this is related to his plantar fascia in some way. If so, that’s not a good sign heading into a game against Pittsburgh’s monstrous defense.

SATURDAY NOTES: Justin Herbert was downgraded in Friday’s practice to DNP. He’s listed as questionable. At this rate, Herbert is either going to sit, or he’s going to play hurt. Either way, the Steelers look great. Easton Stick versus a top-10 defense would be a disaster for the Chargers. Herbert being banged up against T.J. Watt and company would be almost as perilous. I’m going to bet four units on the Steelers, and I’m going to lock them in now because if Herbert is ruled out, this line could balloon to -6.5. The best line is -2.5 -117 at BetRivers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Justin Herbert is active. He’ll be playing with a high ankle sprain and a plantar fascia. We’ve seen this from him before where he tries to play through major injury and is terrible as a consequence, so I’m not concerned with my Pittsburgh wager. The sharps bet the Steelers earlier in the week, but not the past 24 hours. The best line is -2.5 -110 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -1.5.

Computer Model: Steelers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The Chargers are a huge public dog.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 72% (125,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Steelers -2.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 78 degrees. Light wind.