2024 NFL Picks – Week 3: Panthers at Raiders

The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

Video of the Week: With the election coming up, let’s hear what Satan has to say about some of the political tactics:

I don’t know if it was intentional, but kudos to Babylon Bee for making the climate weirdo girl look like Greta Thunberg.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Dave Canales has seen enough. Bryce Young was pitiful through two games, especially last week when he refused to throw deep and achieved just seven first downs. Canales made the correct decision to bench Young in favor of Andy Dalton.

Dalton is a better quarterback, even at this stage of his career. I’ve seen some concern about his impending health because of Carolina’s offensive line, but this is a misconception because the Panthers actually block rather well for the most part. Left tackle Ikem Ekwonu is a liability, but the Panthers are strong at the other four positions up front. It should be noted, however, that Ekwonu has quite the mismatch against Maxx Crosby, but the Panthers can help him with double teams.

If teams can negate the strength of the Raiders, their pass rush, then they can have some success against this defense. The Raiders haven’t been very good against the run either, so Carolina’s new powerful guards, Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, could open up decent running lanes for Chuba Hubbard to help keep attention away from Dalton.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: When people asked me if I was afraid of betting on Young last week, I told them I was more terrified of the defense. Carolina’s “stop” unit is in shambles after losing Brian Burns in the offseason, and then D.J. Wonnum and Derrick Brown to injury.

With Burns, Wonnum and Brown unavailable, the Panthers have just seven quarterback hurries all year. That’s pathetic. Many teams are already in the 20s or even 30s in that department, yet Carolina hasn’t reached double digits yet. The Raiders don’t block well, but they won’t be threatened by Carolina’s non-existent pass rush. Gardner Minshew will have plenty of time in the pocket to locate his stellar weapons.

The Raiders also figure to run well, which is something they haven’t done this year. However, they’ve gone against the Chargers and Ravens, both of whom possess top-four rush defenses. The Panthers, missing Brown, are 28th.

RECAP: There are three backup quarterbacks playing this week, two of whom will be battling defenses I consider to be in the top 12. This is one example of that, as Dalton will be going against the Raiders, who were seventh in defensive EPA last year. The Raiders are 13th at the moment, but I believe they will ultimately be in the top 12.

Why is this significant? Well, if you missed the Packers-Titans write-up, backup quarterbacks playing against top 12 defenses have an awful track record. Dalton will have his hands full with the Raiders, and it’s not like Carolina’s horrible defense projects well against all of Las Vegas’ dynamic skill players.

It feels weird to be going against the Panthers when I’ve been calling for Young to be benched, but this is the right decision. Dalton is just in too rough of a spot here, so the Raiders seem like a great play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps continue to bet the Panthers, dropping this line down to +5. I guess they don’t care about a backup quarterback going against an elite defense, though it could be argued that Andy Dalton is a big upgrade over Bryce Young. I’m actually going to cancel my projected wager. Not because of Dalton specifically, but I think the Panthers could be going all out with the quarterback change, kind of like teams do whenever there’s a coach firing because they’ll be looking to prove that they weren’t the problem. Plus, the Raiders are coming off a huge win across the country. It’s just not a great motivational spot.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps were betting the Panthers earlier in the week, but other pro money came in on the Raiders to push the line back to -6. I’m not betting this game now, but if you are or plan on doing so, keep an eye on Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins. Both are questionable after being limited all week.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Given that Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins are banged up, I’d like to change my pick to Carolina. I won’t be betting this one either way though.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins will play, but they may not be 100 percent. The sharps bet the Panthers at numbers above +6. The best line is +5.5 -105 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Panthers players could be motivated because of the quarterback change, while the Raiders had a great comeback victory versus the Ravens across the country.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Raiders -5.5.

Computer Model: Raiders -9.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

The sharps bet the Panthers down when the Andy Dalton decision was announced.

Percentage of money on Las Vegas: 77% (96,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Raiders are 19-34 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.

Raiders are 37-54 ATS after a win since 2009.

Opening Line: Raiders -5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Dome.