2024 NFL Picks – Week 3: Lions at Cardinals

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions scored just 16 points against a Tampa Bay defense missing several starters in the secondary, so based on that point total, it could be assumed that the offense struggled as a whole. This would not be correct, as Detroit produced 463 net yards of offense, but mustered only 16 points because of mistakes and sloppy play, perhaps stemming from being unfocused after a thrilling overtime victory.

The Lions should be able to get back on track in this game. They have dynamic weapons all over the place, including the receiving corps, as Jameson Williams and Tim Patrick have strengthened that group. This is significant because the Cardinals have a dreadful group of cornerbacks. They won’t be able to deal with those two players and Amon-Ra St. Brown; not to mention Sam LaPorta attacking the middle of the field.

The Cardinals will also have to deal with Detroit’s two talented backs. They struggled to contain James Cook in Week 1 before having success against Kyren Williams and his banged-up offensive line this past Sunday. The Lions run block extremely well, so this will be Arizona’s toughest test to date.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kyler Murray got off to a hot start against Buffalo to start the year, but fizzled in the second half. He and Marvin Harrison Jr. struggled to find any sort of chemistry. Some even wondered if Harrison was going to be a bust after he was clocked running extremely slow routes.

This turned out to be nonsense, of course. Murray and Harrison got on the same page rather quickly, and they were able to torch the Rams rather mercilessly. The Lions have some major problems at cornerback, as rookie Terrion Arnold has struggled through two games. Murray is mostly well protected, so he’ll have enough time to light up Detroit’s secondary.

The Cardinals won’t have nearly as much success running the ball. James Conner has been terrific since the middle of last season, but this is a very difficult matchup for him. Detroit has one of the top run-stuffing units in the NFL, so Conner will have to deal his damage as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: The Lions lost to the Buccaneers, but the final score wasn’t indicative of how the teams performed. The Lions outgained the Buccaneers by 240 net yards and averaged one more yard per play. They suffered a defeat because they shot themselves in the foot one too many times, as they were unfocused following an overtime victory against their former quarterback.

Coming off a loss, the Lions will be more focused, especially after seeing the Cardinals throttle the Rams. They can’t possibly look past Arizona now, so we’ll see full effort from them. We’ll also see great line value, as the advance spread on this game was just Detroit -4.5. Thanks to last week’s results, one of which was misleading, this spread dropped to -3. This is tremendous value, as we’re now getting the key number of three with this great Detroit team. I plan on betting a few units on the Lions.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Five Detroit players missed Wednesday’s practice, including three defensive backs and Alex Anzalone. I’m not excited about backing a road favorite with so many injuries, so hopefully the Lions get some players back later in the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Lions have several players on the injury report. Ifeatu Melifonwu is out, while Graham Glasgow, Alex Anzalone and Terrion Arnold are all questionable. The Cardinals have an issue as well. They’re already down Jonah Williams, but Williams’ backup, Kelvin Beachum, was downgraded each day in practice. He seems unlikely to play after a DNP on Friday. I’m sticking with my three-unit wager on the Lions.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Lions have some injury question marks heading into this game, so we’ll have to see what the inactives look like.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Alex Anzalone is out for the Lions, which is not ideal. It won’t get me off this three-unit bet, however, especially with the Cardinals missing Kelvin Beachum. The sharps haven’t touched this one. The best line is -3 +100 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -4.5.

Computer Model: Lions -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

The Cardinals are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 56% (120,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Cardinals are 47-33 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Lions -4.5.

Opening Total: 53.

Weather: Dome.