2024 NFL Picks – Week 3: Patriots at Jets

The Matchup. Edge: Jets.

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Week 2 Analysis: We’ve suffered half a season’s worth of bad beats through two weeks plus the preseason. We got crushed on our August NFL Pick of the Month when the Ravens fumbled on the final offensive play to set up an Eagles field goal. In Week 1, Will Levis sabotaged a sure Tennessee victory to cost us five units. We had two bad beats in Week 2. That’s 17 units in total, plus the vig. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Raiders, 4 units (win): Not only did I bet on this game, I have the Raiders over 6.5 wins and Ravens under 11.5 wins, so I was happy that Las Vegas won outright.

Packers, 5 units (win): I nearly lost my mind when Josh Jacobs fumbled into the end zone, but the Packers still covered easily. This one was never in doubt.

Titans, 5 units (loss): The Titans, once again, outgained their opponent, yet failed to cover as an underdog of more than a field goal. For the second week in a row, Levis sabotaged a potential cover with one of the dumbest throws you’ll ever see. He tossed a backward shovel pass inside the Jets 5-yard line to cost his team three points. The Titans were still winning or tied for most of the game, but they naturally lost by seven once again. Levis has now cost us about $1,100 through two weeks.

Giants, 3 units (loss): Last year, we lost with Texans -2.5 because Houston’s kicker got hurt, so the Texans opted to kneel on the extra-point attempt. This year, Graham Gano suffered a groin injury on the opening kickoff, so the Giants couldn’t attempt any kicks. They lost three points on extra tries, and then they had a chip-shot field goal attempt at the very end that they had to eschew. Daniel Jones appeared to connect with Malik Nabers on fourth down, but Nabers dropped the ball. Meanwhile, the opposing kicker drilled seven field goals. Which Indian burial ground did I urinate on to deserve this?

Rams, 3 units (loss): I was way off on this one. I undervalued the Cardinals pass rush, which gave Matthew Stafford major problems. I also overestimated the Rams defense, which looked pitiful versus Arizona.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: There were questions about how Aaron Rodgers would perform as a 40-year-old coming off a torn Achilles. He had a decent debut versus San Francisco, and after a slow start against Tennessee, he caught fire in the second half despite battling one of the top defenses in the NFL.

Rodgers will have an easier matchup in this game. The Patriots had immense issues getting the Seahawks off the field last week. They were extremely weak to the pass, with D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba torching the secondary. Garrett Wilson should be able to continue the damage Metcalf caused. New England will also be battling the best offensive line it’ll have seen thus far, so getting to Rodgers will be a problem.

Breece Hall has a tougher matchup, as the Patriots currently rank 10th in the run defense department at the moment. It’s worth noting, however, that the Patriots have gone against Zack Moss and Zach Charbonnet, so it’s not like they’ve battled the likes of Hall.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots were able to keep pace with the Seahawks last week despite having major problems against Metcalf and Smith-Njigba. They did this two ways: running with Rhamondre Stevenson and having Jacoby Brissett attack the middle of the field with Hunter Henry.

The Jets are notorious for being poor against the run. They signed Leki Fotu this offseason to fix this area, but Fotu is on injured reserve. Stevenson should do well on the ground, provided the Patriots don’t fall too far behind. Henry also has a nice matchup, as the Jets’ injury situation makes it so they can be beaten over the middle of the field.

Sustaining drives could be difficult, however. The Jets have the cornerback talent to completely nullify the New England receivers, so any negative play will instantly nuke any New York possession.

RECAP: I have a primary rule concerning Thursday and London games. Given the brief preparation time, I will always bet the superior team if I believe they will be focused. The inferior squad just doesn’t have enough of an opportunity to create a game plan to overcome the tougher foe.

I also have a secondary rule, and that would be fading teams coming off overtime. The Patriots went the extra session versus the Seahawks. This is bad news for them because teams playing on Thursday coming off an overtime affair are just 5-24 against the spread all time.

The superior team in this matchup is obviously the Jets. Sure, the Patriots beat the Bengals and nearly went the distance against the Seahawks, but those were fluky results. The Bengals weren’t trying very hard, while the Seahawks are a mediocre team that was playing across the country in an early start time. The Jets are a top-10 team that should have their way with the exhausted Patriots.

Our Week 3 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both teams have injury concerns. The Jets won’t have Jermaine Johnson and possibly C.J. Mosley, though they’ll get back D.J. Reed. The Patriots, meanwhile, will be without two starting offensive linemen, while two others, including David Andrews, are questionable. New England not being able to block at all could be a huge problem for them. Conversely, someone during the show (video below) brought up that the Jets are playing their third game in 11 days. Teams in this situation are 4-9 against the spread. That’s not good, but it’s also not a big sample size. I’m sticking with the Jets for three units.

NFL PLAYER PROP BETS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: My favorite prop bet is Breece Hall over 30.5 receiving yards. Since Hall was unshackled last year, he has topped 30.5 receiving yards in nine of his 14 games. Given that he can go the distance any time he touches the ball, I’d say this is a good bet. The best number is over 30.5 -125 at BetMGM.

I also really like the Garrett Wilson over receiving yards. I realize there’s negative correlation between these two props, but the Jets offense funnels to two players primarily. The Patriots can’t defend the pass at all, so I think Wilson will go over. The best number is over 64.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

Demario Douglas over receiving yards looks good as well. Jerod Mayo told reporters ahead of this game that he wants to get Douglas more involved because he’s very explosive. The best number is over 26.5 -110 at BetMGM.

The final prop is Jets over 22.5 points. Teams coming off overtime games and then playing on Thursday night like the Patriots often surrender the over to opposing team points, so New York shouldn’t have any issues scoring. The best number is over 22.5 -118 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

I’m putting all of these bets into a parlay. This $25 parlay pays $206.25, and it was done on BetMGM.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, but I still like the Jets. There are a variety of -6s and -6.5s out there, but the best line is -6 -110 at BetMGM>

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Patriots are playing on a short week after overtime.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -7.

Computer Model: Jets -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 56% (74,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.