2024 NFL Picks – Week 3: Texans at Vikings

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

I don’t know what education has to do with football knowledge. I also don’t know why 12 people upvoted that stupid comment. Let’s be real though, Andy probably has 11 other alt accounts and liked his own post that many times.

Here’s someone who proposed a sexual favor:

A tempting offer, except for the pink eye. The pink eye ruins everything!

I’m not sure why this guy thought I was unemployed. Does he not know that people can run businesses online? Also, he’s another guy who liked his comment over and over. Who would like something like that?

Anyway, I was called a fat weirdo and this:

A douche clown! Would you rather be a douche clown or a fat weirdo? Let me know in the comments section!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: What is it with former Jets bust quarterbacks going elsewhere and thriving? First, Geno Smith experienced a renaissance in Seattle, and now Sam Darnold is thriving in Minnesota. Perhaps the Broncos should ditch Bo Nix and turn to Zach Wilson ASAP.

Darnold, like Smith, is surrounded by some great personnel. He’s being coached up at a very high level, and he has a terrific offensive line in front of him. Oh, and it helps that Justin Jefferson is his receiver. Jefferson has a difficult matchup this week against Derek Stingley, but it’s not like Jefferson can’t beat tough coverage. Darnold will have enough time to find Jefferson and perhaps a returning Jordan Addison, as his offensive line has done a phenomenal job of protecting him through two weeks.

Aaron Jones should have a solid performance as well. The Texans currently rank in the middle of the pack as far as run defense is concerned. Jones is also a threat as a receiver out of the backfield, and he should thrive in this regard against Houston’s mediocre linebackers.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Vikings did a great job of assembling defensive talent this offseason. Andrew Van Ginkel has especially been tremendous in this defense. Brian Flores befuddled Daniel Jones in the opener and then was able to force the 49ers into some turnovers.

It’s hard to imagine Minnesota’s defense having the same success against C.J. Stroud, however. Stroud is on another level with the mental part of his game, and he has three dynamic receivers, plus Dalton Schultz at his disposal. The Vikings improved their secondary this spring, but they still have some liabilities at cornerback that can be exploited.

The Vikings will also have to worry about the run, as Joe Mixon figures to return from an injury he suffered midway through the Sunday night affair. The Vikings just allowed Jordan Mason to reach 100 rushing yards, so Mixon projects well.

RECAP: The Vikings were one of the most underrated teams heading into the year, as they made a number of terrific moves in free agency to improve their defense from a year ago. Darnold, meanwhile, has quality weapons at his disposal and is being coached up at a very high level. There are some fake 2-0 teams, but Minnesota is legitimate.

I like the Vikings in this spot, but we’ve lost all of our line value. Minnesota was +4.5 on the advance spread, but the number is now +2. Still, the Vikings seem like they’re in a good spot with the Texans potentially being flat after their first win on national TV under this new regime. Then again, Stroud is a quarterback who finds ways to win, so I could see the Vikings being ahead for most of the game until Stroud wills his way to victory.

I’d have a bet on the Vikings at anything above +3, but the lost line value is extremely unappealing, so this is a non-bet for me.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps continue to bet the Vikings, driving this line down to +2. Perhaps the reason for this is that Nico Collins missed Wednesday’s practice, but the Texans have a million other receivers.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps continue to bet the Vikings, with this line down to +1.5. Justin Jefferson has no injury designation. Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce, but Cam Akers is a viable replacement, so these injuries shouldn’t impact your stance on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps were betting the Vikings all week until the line got to +1.5. There is a +2 available, and you can get it at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Vikings.

The Texans are coming off a national TV victory.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -4.5.

Computer Model: Texans -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 55% (123,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Vikings are 44-36 ATS at home since 2014 (13-21 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Texans -4.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.