2024 NFL Picks – Week 3: Broncos at Buccaneers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers are 2-0 after winning in Detroit, so their offense must be very explosive with their two receivers, right? Well, it was in Week 1, but not so much this past Sunday. Despite the win, Tampa Bay tallied just 216 net yards of offense against a team with a struggling secondary. This is not a good sign.

The Buccaneers will face a tougher test this week. Patrick Surtain II is arguably the best cornerback in the NFL at the moment, so he’ll be able to handle Mike Evans. It’ll be up to Baker Mayfield to look elsewhere, which is what he’s done with Chris Godwin, who has played the Cooper Kupp role in Liam Coen’s offense.

Mayfield will be asked to do a lot in this game because he once again won’t get anything out of his running game. The Broncos are currently eighth against the run despite battling Kenneth Walker in Week 1. Rachaad White is struggling to find any running lanes anyway.

DENVER OFFENSE: I would ordinarily hate this matchup for the Broncos. Bo Nix is a mobile quarterback, which normally wouldn’t bode well against Todd Bowles’ defense. Bowels typically devours mobile quarterbacks, as we saw in Week 1 when Jayden Daniels struggled in his debut.

However, the injury situation means that these aren’t nornal circumstances. The Buccaneers were already missing several players in their secondary, including Antoine Winfield. Now, Vita Vea is expected to be sidelined as well. This is obviously a huge presence that will be missed in the defensive interior.

With Vea projected to be sidelined, the Broncos will have a much better time establishing the run against the Buccaneers than they ordinarily would. This will make life for Nix easier as he attempts to exploit Tampa Bay’s injury-ravaged secondary.

RECAP: I find the line movement in this game to be quite humorous. The advance spread was -4.5, and now it’s -7. Yet, the Buccaneers lost another key member of their defense with Vea being sidelined. Why in the world would the Buccaneers be favored by way more than they were a week ago when they were outgained by 240 yards and won’t have one of their top defensive players?

I’m no fan of the Broncos, but I love the value we’re getting with them in this game. Oh, and I don’t like the Buccaneers either. Tampa Bay won at Detroit last week, but was outgained by 240 net yards and one more yard per play. This is a team that has a ton of weakness and one strength, and the Broncos can negate half of it with Surtain shutting down Evans.

Something else to consider here is that this is Week 3. Sean Payton has an abysmal track record in the first two weeks of the season – 3-18-1 against the spread the past 11 years – but tends to get better in Week 3 onward. For whatever reason, Payton always sucks to start the year, but improves his coaching once the season progresses. The Broncos haven’t played well to start the year, but we could see their best game this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Broncos down from +7 to +6.5. I scoured all the sportsbooks to see if there’s a viable +7 still available. There is. You can get +7 -115 at BetMGM, which I’m going to lock in now. I don’t have a promo for BetMGM, but you can get +7 -117 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m glad we locked this in, as Denver fell to +6 with more sharp money coming that way. The Buccaneers will be missing Vita Vea, Antoine Winfield Jr., Luke Goedeke, and Calijah Kancey. That doesn’t sound like a team that should be favored by too many points.

PLAYER PROP: I like Rachaad White under 49.5 rushing yards. White has 31 and 18 rushing yards in his first two games, which is not a fluke. White is not a good runner, and the Buccaneers run block very poorly. Making matters worse for White, he’s dealing with a groin injury and will be battling Denver’s eighth-ranked rush defense. The best number is under 49.5 rushing yards -113 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: DeVaughn Vele is out for fantasy purposes, but that won’t impact my opinion on this game. The sharps bet the Broncos down to +6, which is music to my ears because we locked in +7 earlier. I found one sportsbook that still has +6.5, and that would be +6.5 -112 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Buccaneers, coming off an upset win, may be looking ahead to the Eagles.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -4.5.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -9.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Easy money for the public.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 80% (127,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Road Team is 134-93 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 41-71 ATS at home in the previous 112 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -7.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Sunny, 88 degrees. Light wind.