2024 NFL Picks – Week 3: Dolphins at Seahawks

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: Tua Tagovailoa is out for the foreseeable future, so Skylar Thompson will start. There’s been lots of doom and gloom surrounding the Dolphins in the wake of this injury, and for good reason. However, Miami still has the personnel to win some games with Thompson.

Having De’Von Achane in the backfield will certainly help. The Dolphins did not have a great game on Thursday night, to put it nicely, but it was cool to see them use Achane so creatively. Achane has a great matchup in this game because the Seahawks have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. They couldn’t get off the field versus Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson, thanks in part to Uchenna Nwosu’s absence, so how will they deal with Achane?

It’s not like the Seahawks can focus on containing Achane either. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are still massive threats. The Seahawks haven’t dealt with potent receivers yet, as the best player at the position they’ve faced so far this year was Courtland Sutton in Week 1. Hill and Waddle should still perform well, given the quarterback change.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Though the Seahawks couldn’t get off the field against Stevenson and Gibson, they still managed to prevail with D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba making big plays. Tyler Lockett was also huge in overtime.

The Dolphins were supposed to be much better against the pass than they’ve been through two weeks, but Jalen Ramsey has not lived up to the massive contract he recently signed. Ramsey has been torched through two weeks, which is a concern against Seattle’s talented receivers. Kendall Fuller has played well, but Ramsey will need to step up in this tough matchup.

Miami was especially poor at defending James Cook last week. This is why Kenneth Walker’s availability will be crucial. Walker may miss this game, and if he does, Zach Charbonnet won’t be a viable replacement because he’s not very good. Walker, on the other hand, could dominate Miami.

RECAP: When I announced that the Packers were one of my top picks last week, I had quite a few people question it because of Malik Willis. How could I possibly bet so much on Willis? Well, backup quarterbacks tend to do quite well against non-elite defenses. Over the past few years, reserve quarterbacks are 29-15 against the spread versus defenses that aren’t ranked in the top 12.

The question is: Are the Seahawks considered a top-12 defense? They’re seventh in defensive EPA at the moment, but their two opponents this year have been the Broncos and Patriots, and they had trouble getting New England’s offense off the field. Mike Macdonald is an excellent defensive coach, but I don’t consider Seattle’s defense an elite unit.

With that in mind, I have a lot of interest in the Dolphins. They’ve become big underdogs in this matchup after being a road favorite on the advance spread. The advance line was Miami -1.5, so this spread has moved six points for a quarterback injury, which is absurd. No quarterback is worth six points, except maybe Patrick Mahomes.

Furthermore, the Seahawks are in a tough spot. They won an overtime game on the East Coast. Now, they have to travel back to the West Coast, play this non-conference game, and then travel back to the Eastern Time Zone to battle the Lions next week.

I bet five units on Willis last week, and I’ll have five units on Thompson. Maybe I’m wrong about Seattle’s defense, but even if I am, the Seahawks being in a bad motivational state could get us the cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Seahawks had nine players miss Wednesday’s practice, including D.K. Metcalf. This is music to my ears because I already love the Dolphins.

SATURDAY NOTES: D.K. Metcalf will play, but the Seahawks will be down several players, including Uchenna Nwosu and Jerome Baker. Their run defense will continue to suffer without them. De’Von Achane looks great in this matchup.

ALT. LINE BET: I’m going to bet the Dolphins at -2.5 rather than the moneyline. The best number is +215 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps bet this line down to +4. I’m not seeing any viable +4.5 lines anywhere. You can get +4.5 -115 at FanDuel, but that’s too expensive.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, the sharps bet the Dolphins down to +4, but not at +4. The best line is +4 -108 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Dolphins.

The Dolphins will have to play at 110 percent for their new quarterback. The Seahawks, coming off an overtime win across the country, play at Detroit next week.

The Spread. Edge: Dolphins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -1.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 54% (93,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 59-46 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Seahawks are 30-19 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Seahawks -6.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 65 degrees. Light wind.