2024 NFL Picks – Week 4: Redskins at Cardinals

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: It’s amazing how quickly things have changed for Jayden Daniels. In Tampa to open the season, Daniels was tentative and struggled until garbage time. He improved the following week, albeit against the Giants. Still, he threw far too many checkdowns and would have lost had the Giants’ kicker not suffered an injury on the opening sequence of the game. Just eight days later, Daniels had the best single-game performance of any rookie quarterback ever from an accuracy standpoint. He completed 21-of-23 passes and wasn’t just tossing checkdowns. He torched Cincinnati’s secondary with some long bombs, including 55- and 27-yard touchdowns to Terry McLaurin.

Daniels was battling a defense that ranked 13th in EPA heading into Week 3. He’ll have a much easier matchup against the Cardinals. Arizona has major problems in the secondary and can’t seem to generate consistent pressure on the quarterback unless they’re battling the injury-ravaged Rams. Daniels should have his way with the Cardinals.

What makes Daniels’ performance even more special was that he couldn’t lean on the running game at all. Brian Robinson Jr. was getting nothing on the ground, which should continue to be the case, as Arizona is mediocre when it comes to defending the rush.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: If Daniels weren’t a rookie, making his feat so much more remarkable, we could compare his Monday night performance to that of what we saw from Kyler Murray in Week 2. Murray torched the Rams mercilessly en route to a blowout victory. There’s good reason to believe that we’ll see something similar from Murray this week.

While the Redskins have an explosive offense, their defense is almost just as bad. They get no pressure on the quarterback – even less so than Arizona – while the entire secondary is a complete dumpster fire. They can’t cover anyone, so Marvin Harrison Jr. and the rest of the receivers should have a very easy time getting open.

The Redskins are better against the run, and not just by default. They’re ranked in the middle of the pack, but that may not be good enough to contain James Conner, who has been a big producer dating back to the middle of last season when Murray returned from injury.

RECAP: I’m pissed that the Redskins looked great on Monday night. When I first saw this line on Sunday night, I knew I’d like the Redskins at +5. The Cardinals just aren’t good enough to be favored by this sort of a number over a competent team. Their offense is explosive, but their defense is inept. Washington would project great against it.

Furthermore, the Redskins would have the advantage of Kliff Kingsbury knowing the opposition. Granted, there are some different players, but Kingsbury coached Murray, so he would know his weaknesses better than anyone. Weaknesses other than Call of Duty, mind you.

You can imagine my disappointment when this spread was re-released following the Monday night result. It’s not a huge difference, but the Cardinals are down to -3.5. Furthermore, the Redskins are in an unfavorable position of trying to duplicate their production from Monday night just six days later. Big underdogs coming off upset victories on Monday night tend to struggle the following Sunday.

I’m still going with the Redskins, but this is just a slight lean. Given the new, unfortunate circumstances from Monday night, I can’t envision myself betting on this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s sharp money coming in on the Cardinals. I get it, but I really don’t want to lay the -3.5, so I’ll stay on Washington.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s no injury news of note aside from Trey McBride being ruled out with a concussion. I’m still very torn on this game.

PLAYER PROP: I’m betting Greg Dortch over 3.5 receptions. Trey McBride’s injury is a huge boon to Dortch, who goes up against a miserable slot cornerback this week. Marvin Harrison Jr. also has some sort of quad injury, so Dortch should have a big day. I like his receptions rather than receiving yards because his average depth of target is often so low. The best number is over 3.5 -120 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still don’t have a good feel for this game. Barring surprising injury, I won’t be betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s nothing new here for me. The sharps are on the Cardinals, but I don’t like either side. If you want to tail the sharps, the best line is Arizona -3.5 -102 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The Redskins are coming off a big upset victory on Monday night.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -5.

Computer Model: Cardinals -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Washington: 54% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Redskins are 20-33 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Opening Line: Cardinals -5.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Dome.