2024 NFL Picks – Week 4: Eagles at Buccaneers

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

Video of the Week: I watched a lot of Mario hacks over the summer – mainly because my daughter is so into them – but this one was one of my two favorites:

It’s the only Mario hack, to my knowledge, that features Shel Silverstein poetry.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: We have to begin on this side of the ball because there are so many injuries. A.J. Brown has been sidelined for the past two games and could miss another. DeVonta Smith just suffered a concussion. Lane Johnson got hurt last week. For the Buccaneers, Vita Vea and Antoine Winfield were out last week.

The injury report will obviously be instrumental in handicapping this game. Under normal circumstances, I’d like Jalen Hurts’ chances of achieving revenge for the playoff loss. The Buccaneers have poor cornerbacks, so Brown and Smith would have a field day against them. Hurts has a great offensive line in front of him, and Tampa struggles to get to the quarterback. The Buccaneers have just two sacks on the year!

Everything will be different if Hurts is down all three star players. Hurts has not played his best football through three weeks, and it’s not like he’ll be able to lean on Saquon Barkley again if Vea returns from injury. The Buccaneers are ordinarily stout against the run, and Vea was expecting to miss only one game.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Speaking of being stout against the run, the Eagles put the clamps on Alvin Kamara despite everyone wondering how they would do so heading into the game. The Buccaneers don’t have much of a rushing attack, though Bucky Irving is far better than Rachaad White as a pure runner. Perhaps he’ll provide a spark for this dead ground attack, but I’m not expecting much because of the poor interior blocking.

The Buccaneers, however, have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and the two receivers will present a major problem for Philadelphia’s secondary. Quinyon Mitchell has gotten off to a good start in his career, but Darius Slay hasn’t been as good as he’s been in the past. Evans and Godwin should be able to win their matchups. This is especially true for Godwin, as Philadelphia is horrendous versus slot receivers.

The Eagles will need to counter this with a pass rush on Baker Mayfield, but they haven’t produced much pressure through three weeks. Aside from Jalen Carter and Brandon Graham on limited snaps, they’re not getting after the quarterback consistently.

RECAP: It’s difficult to make a firm pick on this game right now because both teams have numerous injuries. The Eagles could be without Brown, Smith, and Johnson. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are awaiting the status of Vea, Winfield, and Luke Goedeke.

I’m leaning toward the Buccaneers right now. It seems like they have the better chance of being healthier. I also like that they’re coming off a blowout loss. They were completely unfocused against Denver because they had just achieved revenge for their playoff loss at Detroit, so Week 3 was an obvious flat spot for them. Given that they were humiliated, they should play much better this week. The Eagles, conversely, haven’t performed up to their ability yet despite their 2-1 record.

Injury updates will be key here. Check back later, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, or Lane Johnson in Wednesday’s practice. We’ll see if one returns by the end of the week. For the Buccaneers, Antoine Winfield Jr. was sidelined again, but Vita Vea had a limited practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping to have concrete news on the Eagles at this point, but we don’t. DeVonta Smith is out, but A.J. Brown and Lane Johnson are both questionable after being limited on Friday. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, won’t have Antoine Winfield again, but Vita Vea is questionable after being limited all week. Stay tuned for a major update Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: A.J. Brown and Lane Johnson are out. The Buccaneers will have Vita Vea and Bucky Irving. This is not great for the Eagles, obviously. The sharps have a lean on Tampa, and I’m going to bet a unit on them. The best line is +1.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -1.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 52% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 135-93 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Jalen Hurts is 7-14 ATS as a road favorite.

Buccaneers are 41-72 ATS at home in the previous 112 instances.

Buccaneers are 12-31 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Eagles -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Scattered thunderstorms, 88 degrees. Light wind.