2024 NFL Picks – Week 4: Bengals at Panthers

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: I’d say it’s hard to believe that an offense comprised of Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins is 0-3, but we’ve seen Cincinnati begin slowly so often with this trio. The Bengals fell to 0-2 after a loss to Cooper Rush, yet went on to the AFC Championship later that season.

Burrow and company will be able to recover easily in this matchup. The Panthers may have the worst defense in the NFL. They’re incapable of generating consistent pressure on the quarterback because of the absences/departures of Brian Burns, Derrick Brown, and D.J. Wonnum. Burrow often feels heat in the pocket, but that won’t be the case in this game. He’ll have all the time in the world to find his talented receivers.

If/when the Bengals establish a big lead, they’ll be able to ice the game with their rushing attack. The Panthers are horrible versus the run. Perhaps Cincinnati will deploy Chase Brown more often, as Brown looked far superior compared to the sluggish Zack Moss on Monday night.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s good to know that I’m not crazy. I expected the Panthers to be much better offensively this year, thanks to the upgrades it made to the offensive line, receiving corps, and coaching staff. This offense was miserable through two weeks, but came to life when Andy Dalton replaced the anemic Bryce Young.

Dalton was great in his 2024 debut, but that was against an injury-ravaged Raiders defense that looked unfocused following a comeback victory at Baltimore. Then again, the Bengals just allowed Jayden Daniels to set the all-time rookie completion record for a single game, so perhaps the magic will continue for Dalton.

The one positive I can mention concerning Cincinnati’s defense is that the unit has improved versus the run lately. Rhamondre Stevenson gashed the Bengals in Week 1, but Cincinnati has gotten better against ground attacks each week. The Bengals put the clamps on Brian Robinson Jr., who had just enjoyed a great outing versus the Giants, so they should be able to keep Chuba Hubbard in check.

RECAP: As mentioned in the Jaguars-Texans pick capsule, I love betting on good quarterbacks coming off losses as long as they’re not huge favorites. Burrow is 15-7 against the spread following a defeat, so Cincinnati looks great in this game where they’ll have their backs against the wall at 0-3.

This really is a must win for the Bengals, so they’ll be going all out to beat the Panthers. Despite this, we’re getting some value with them. Cincinnati was -7 on the advance line, yet is now just -4.5. It’s remarkable that we’re getting 2.5 points of value, including two key numbers, just because the Raiders were caught napping against Dalton and the Bengals lost due to the brilliance of Daniels.

I love the Bengals this week. They’re my favorite play, as we’re getting them on a diminished point spread as they attempt to save their season.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money coming in on the Panthers. I’m not seeing any reason why they would jump on Carolina.

SATURDAY NOTES: I already loved the Bengals. I love them even more now that we have some injury woes for Carolina. Diontae Johnson missed Thursday’s practice and was limited Friday. Robert Hunt was downgraded from full to limited on Friday. Damien Lewis is out. If Hunt and Lewis will both be sidelined, the Panthers will have the same interior offensive line issues they possessed in 2023.

PLAYER PROP: I like Ja’Marr Chase over receiving yards. This number seems low, given the matchup. The Panthers have been horrendous defensively this year. They’ve pressured the quarterback just seven times through three games, and Jaycee Horn has struggled as a result. Chase is fully in shape now, and I expect him and Joe Burrow to play at their best at 0-3. The best number is over 71.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Diontae Johnson and Robert Hunt will play, but Damien Lewis is ruled out. I love the Bengals today to bounce back, and there’s a bit of sharp money on them as well. The best line is -4.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bengals.

The Bengals are in a must-win situation.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -7.

Computer Model: Bengals -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

Good money on the Bengals, some of it being sharp.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 75% (122,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Joe Burrow is 37-18 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (3-6 ATS otherwise).

Joe Burrow is 15-7 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Bengals -5.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 79 degrees. Light wind.