2024 NFL Picks – Week 4: Seahawks at Lions

The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Detroit, home of my childhood hero, Eminem, even though Mother won’t allow me to dye my hair like him, but maybe she will now that Joe Burrow has the same hairdo! Tonight, the Detroit Tigers take on the Baltimore Colts. Guys, we got a lot of feedback from people saying that I should defy Mother and dye my hair like Eminem and Joe Cool Burrow, but it would be very dangerous to defy Mother! I’m only 73 years old, so she still gives me an allowance so I can buy Eagles bobbleheads, and without my allowance, I won’t be able to buy any! How could I be so foolish to defy Mother!?

Emmitt: Thanks, Rosa. I don’t think it are a very good idea to deep fry your mother. Now if you talking about mother-and-law, then that a different storytime because mother-and-law very mean to Emmitt. She criticism me for everything, and she even say that Barry- uhh- Barry- Barry Johnson a much better running back than your truthly, which is blastomy even though we in the state of Detroit where Sanders Johnson play football for a long time, like a couple of year.

Reilly: Emmitt, the name you’re looking for is Barry Simpson. Trust me, I’m a football expert, if you couldn’t tell by all the Eagles bobbleheads I have. But I wish I could have a mother-and-law one day because that would mean that I got to marry a beautiful woman who will cook macaroni and cheese for me and take over my chores so I don’t have to do them for Mother anymore. But Mother says this is a pipe dream because I’m a beautiful flower who hasn’t blossomed yet.

Tollefson: Reilly, you sad excuse for a man, what if I told you that I could sell you one of the women I’ve enslaved so she can cook macaroni and cheese and take over your chores for you? Trust me, I only have the best female slaves because the ones who are bad at cooking macaroni and cheese get buried in the woods. I can sell you one for, well, how much do you have?

Reilly: Tolly, buying female slaves is wrong! Mother says I’m not ready to talk to girls unless it’s in the professional environment, so I will not take part in this. Maybe I’ll buy some when my flower has blossomed, but I can’t do that yet. But let’s move on, shall we? Let’s go down to Charissa Thompson, who is set to interview another foreign leader.

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Mike. Speaking of human trafficking, I’m hearing that Jared Goff and David Montgomery have been selling Haitian slaves who only eat cats to southern landowners. My reporting is always correct, so you can believe me. I’m joined here by another foreign leader this week because they are arguing on their country’s behalf to host an NFL game after Roger Goodell said he wants to double the number of international games. My guest tonight is Justin Trudeau, or at least I thought it was. I think this is either Martin Luther King Jr. or Denzel Washington. Thank you for joining me, but where did Justin Trudeau go?

Justin Trudeau: Hi, my name is Justin Trudeau, and I am wearing my early Halloween costume. I put black paint on my face to show that I care about people of color so much. If anyone says anything bad about people of color, I will lock them away in the gulag because I am a benevolent leader.

Charissa Thompson: Sorry, I wasn’t listening to anything you were saying because I’m such a great interviewer that I don’t need to listen. So, what’s your selling point on bringing the NFL to Canada? You said something about gulags?

Justin Trudeau: That’s right, but before I move further, please let me announce that my pronouns are he/him. Our gulags are special because they are effectively hotels, but we make sure people can never leave them, and the only thing they are served for dinner are moldy Kit-Kats. It’s quite nice. Once we brainwash people into conforming to our beliefs, they will tow the line. This complete compliance with the government is what you get with games in Canada, and it’s wonderful.

Reilly: President Trudeau, I have to take umbrage with something you said. You said that people eat Kit-Kats for dinner, but Mother won’t let me have Kit-Kats because it makes me too hyper, and then I can’t take a nap or go to sleep at night. President Camel Toe Harris, can you promise to go to war with Canada if they don’t stop serving Kit-Kats?

Kamala Harris: Canada is a country in North America. It exists next to another country. And we like to call that country the United States of America. When I was raised in a middle class family, my father said that Canada is to the north of the United States. And north means up. If you look up, you’ll see Canada, probably in the clouds, HAHAHAHAHA. Clouds are things in the sky that are white, but sometimes gray. And if they’re gray, that’s where the rain comes from. It comes from the clouds that are gray and not white.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, once again, my political opponent has no idea what she’s talking about because she’s a total fraud and a total disgrace, and she would be a horrible president, probably the worst president we’ve ever had in this country, and no one will have seen anything like it, frankly, and Kamala is not just a bad presidential candidate, but she knows nothing about clouds, unlike Trump who knows everything there is about clouds, I know all about the clouds, I saw a cloud that looked like a giraffe yesterday, it was a great cloud, one of the best clouds anyone has ever seen, and the immigrants who are here illegally from Sudan are eating the clouds, they’re eating all the clouds, no one has ever seen anything like it, frankly, and it’s all because Kamala let in all the illegals, and now they’re eating all your clouds, and they’ll keep eating your clouds if she’s elected.

Wolfley: DONALD, THE SUDANESE IMMIGRANTS AREN’T THE ONLY ONES EATING THE CLOUDS. MY FOURTH COUSIN, A 56K MODEM WITH COOKIES FOR EYES AND POPCORN FOR A NOSE EATS CLOUDS WITH A SIDE OF BACON EVERY MORNING.

Reilly: Shut up, guys! Will you guys stop talking about clouds? It’s so embarrassing! We have greater things to worry about like Kit-Kats. New Daddy, can you force our next president to make it so Kit-Kats have less sugar, so Mother says it’s OK to have for a snack?

Jay Cutler: Yeah, sure I’ll get right on that.

Reilly: Wow, thanks, New Daddy! You’re the best!

Jay Cutler: Wait, what was I supposed to do again? I already forgot because I don’t care.

Reilly: New Daddy, no, you’re supposed to de-sugarize Kit-Kats for me!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about chocolate candy, Kevin. You began with Kit-Kats, Kevin. A good place to start, Kevin. Speaking of good, Kevin, how about Mr. Goodbar, Kevin? We can talk about a classic, so why not Hershey’s, Kevin? What about Milky Way, Kevin? Or, you can talk about Crunch, Kevin. Let’s segue to Dove chocolate, Kevin. Then, there’s Snickers, Kevin. Not going anywhere for a while, Kevin? That’s because you’re slow and no one likes you, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I MAY STILL BE IN HOME SCHOOL AT 73 YEARS OLD, BUT PEOPLE LIKE ME, LIKE MOTHER AND NEW DADDY, SO YOU’RE A HUGE LIAR, AND I WILL FIND A WAY TO DESTROY YOUR SOUL! We’ll be back after this!

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Seattle has thrown all over the Lions in their previous couple of matchups, as these teams have engaged in exciting shootouts. This is not a surprise, based on the personnel the Lions have on the defensive side of the ball. While Detroit has been stout versus the run recently, it has struggled to cover in the secondary.

This is obviously worrying for Monday night. There should be no difference in the output the Seahawks will enjoy with their aerial assault. D.K. Metcalf has torched his previous two opponents, so he’ll have a similar performance in this game. Jaxon Smith-Njigba should also thrive.

The one caveat here is the status of Seattle’s offensive line. The Seahawks are down their two right tackles, so the Lions might be able to place some pressure on Geno Smith, who has been responsible for some questionable decision-making at times this year.

DETROIT OFFENSE: While the Lions are terrific against the run and woeful against the pass, the Seahawks are the complete opposite. They have talented cornerbacks and can clamp down on passing attacks rather easily. Stopping the run is a different story.

The Seahawks were so woeful against the run in Week 2 that they had to go to overtime to beat the Patriots as a result of Rhamondre Stevenson compiling tons of rushing yardage. I thought Mike McDaniel would deploy De’Von Achane last week to capitalize on this liability, but he gave Achane just six touches by the time Skylar Thompson threw 13 times. Obviously, McDaniel is in over his head as an NFL head coach, but Dan Campbell is not. He’ll make sure the Lions are running the ball against this soft ground defense. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs will thrive as a result.

It’ll be difficult for Jared Goff to throw into the Seahawks secondary, though he’ll have favorable down-and-distance situation as a result of Montgomery and Gibbs gobbling up yardage on the ground. It helps that Goff has plenty of weapons at his disposal, though Sam LaPorta is dealing with an injury at the moment.

RECAP: I don’t think we’ve seen the Lions at full effort this year. Perhaps they’ve transitioned to a Kansas City level where they’re not going to try very hard during the regular season because they know they have bigger fish to fry in the playoffs.

With that in mind, it’s difficult to trust them to win by margin if they’re not battling an opponent who has their attention. It’s an interesting debate as to whether Seattle fits that criteria. On one hand, the Seahawks are 3-0, and they beat Detroit last year. On the other hand, Seattle is not a team that made the playoffs last year, so it’s not like the Lions are battling the 49ers, or anything.

I also don’t know how to evaluate the Seahawks. They’re undefeated, but they’ve battled Bo Nix in his first start, the horrible Patriots, and the dynamic duo of SKylar Thompson and Tim Boyle. They could be a good team, but I just don’t know if that’s the case.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Andy made a compelling argument for the Lions on our YouTube NFL Picks show. I’m going to switch to the Lions.

SATURDAY NOTES: Frank Ragnow has been ruled out, but the Lions should still have top-tier blocking without him. Two offensive line injuries would make me think otherwise, but Detroit can manage with only one starter sidelined.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m considering a bet on the Lions, but we’ll see what the inactives list looks like.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: It looks like the sharps bet the Lions at -3.5. I may place a unit on Detroit.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: My favorte player prop from this game is Kenneth Walker under 52.5 rushing yards. Detroit’s excellent run defense allows nothing, and Walker may not get a full workload in his first game back from injury. The best number is under 52.5 -110 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

I’m putting the Walker rushing prop into a parlay with David Montgomery anytime touchdown, Montgomery over 64.5 rushing yards, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 49.5 receiving yards. The Seahawks are weak to the run, while Detroit can’t stop slot receivers. This $25 parlay pays $175 on BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are backing the Lions so much so that they’ve moved the line from -3.5 to -4.5 over the past 24 hours. You can still find -4 -110 at BetMGM and Bet365. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from Bet365 by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -4.

Computer Model: Lions -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 56% (273,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Lions by 4.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.