2024 NFL Picks – Week 4: Cowboys at Giants

The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

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Week 3 Analysis: The good news is that we had a winning week, albeit not a great one because of the horrible Monday night props. We nailed both of our four-unit picks, and we hit most of our player props. The bad news is that both of our five-unit picks lost. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Jets, 3 units (win): I don’t know why I didn’t bet more on the Jets, given that the Patriots were playing on a short week following an overtime game.

Steelers, 4 units (win): Justin Herbert was surprisingly effective when he played, but he predictably got injured because of his high ankle sprain.

Broncos, 4 units (win): I thought the Broncos would cover, but never expected a 26-7 win. It’s crazy how lopsided this game was.

Titans, 5 units (loss): We have now lost 15 units plus the vig on the Titans this year. Will Levis sucked again, but the defense was more to blame for being incapable of stopping Malik Willis. I thought this was a good defense, but I guess I was wrong.

Dolphins, 5 units (loss): Has any coach ever hurt his stock in a span of two weeks more than Mike McDaniel has? I can’t recall such an occurrence. McDaniel has no feel for the game, and he doesn’t understand how to utilize his best threats. And why did he insist on putting Tim Boyle on his active roster when his team destroyed Boyle last year? I think my mistake here was underestimating Seattle’s defense. The Seahawks couldn’t get off the field versus the Patriots, but Mike Macdonald knew how to deal with Miami’s inept quarterbacks.

Lions, 3 units (win): The Lions almost blew this one, but they managed to hang on to the cover.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys posted some pretty offensive stats in their game against Baltimore, but don’t be deceived by those. Most of what they produced came in garbage time, as the Ravens held a huge lead entering the fourth quarter. Baltimore was able to hound Dak Prescott and shut down the run, limiting Dallas’ offense until the team fell asleep at the wheel.

The Cowboys will face an even greater pass-rushing threat. Brian Burns came alive last week and tortured Deshaun Watson. He and the rest of New York’s front figure to have similar success in this contest, given that the Cowboys have offensive line issues. First-round rookie tackle Tyler Guyton has been awful, and he’ll once again be exposed.

The good news for Dallas is that the Giants have some huge liabilities on this side of the ball as well. The secondary is horrible, so CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson could both have massive outputs when Prescott gets time in the pocket.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Though the Cowboys have concerns with their offensive line, particularly when it comes to blocking Burns, that’s nothing compared to what New York will be confronted with in this matchup.

The Giants are notorious for having a weak offensive line, which has cost them in recent matchups versus Dallas. Micah Parsons and the rest of the Cowboys have made Daniel Jones’ life miserable, and there’s no reason to expect anything different this time as far as just the protection is concerned. Jones lucked out last week with Myles Garrett being banged up, but the Cowboys will put immense pressure on him, preventing the Jones-to-Malik Nabers connection from occurring too often.

Dallas’ main defensive concern is its inability to stop the run. Both the Saints and Ravens were able to take advantage of this massive liability in consecutive weeks. The Giants won’t be able to do that with Devin Singletary. While Singletary is a solid runner, he’s not on the same level as Alvin Kamara and Lamar Jackson, and the Giants don’t run block all that well for him anyway.

RECAP: As I wrote last week, I have a primary rule concerning Thursday and London games. Given the brief preparation time, I will always bet the superior team if I believe they will be focused. The inferior squad just doesn’t have enough of an opportunity to create a game plan to overcome the tougher foe.

Despite the Cowboys being debacled in consecutive weeks, I believe they are the superior team in this matchup. Yes, the Giants just beat the Browns, but Cleveland is a disaster. Besides, Dallas beat the Browns by much more than the Giants did.

I love the Cowboys’ matchup versus the Giants, as it’s the reason these meetings are often lopsided. Dallas’ pass rush is just too fierce for New York’s horrible offensive line to handle. Despite this, the movement from the advance spread (-7) is three points, which is far too much of an overreaction based on a single week of football. It’s not even like there were any major injuries to change the dynamics of these teams. I thought Dallas would win this game easily ahead of Week 3, and I still believe that.

Our Week 4 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve been thinking a lot about what I said regarding the Cowboys being the superior team. I just don’t know if that’s true. They’ve been blown out the past two weeks, while the Giants have a real threat in Malik Nabers. I think I’m going to lower the unit count down to one, as this game has gotten very unappealing from a betting perspective.

PLAYER PROP BET: My favorite prop from this game is Devin Singletary over 60.5 rushing yards. Every running back has gashed Dallas thus far, and Singletary should continue that trend. He has eclipsed 60 rushing yards in the past two games, and this is his easiest matchup to date. I’m also going 100+ rushing yards at +425. The best number is over 60.5 -115 at BetMGM.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m going to parlay the Singletary rushing prop with Malik Nabers over 70.5 receiving yards, Dak Prescott over 263.5 passing yards, and CeeDee Lamb over 80.5 receiving yards. Nabers is ridiculous and should continue to thrive. The Cowboys, meanwhile, can’t run the ball, and they’ll have success throwing into a Giants secondary missing some players. This $25 parlay pays $176.63 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still leainng toward the Cowboys despite their horrible performances the past two weeks. The sharps, conversely, took the Giants at +6. The best line is Dallas -5 -110 at Bet365. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from Bet365 by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -7.

Computer Model: Giants -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

No surprise that the public still loves the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 86% (363,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Cowboys have won 18 of the last 22 meetings.

Opening Line: Cowboys -4.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .