2024 NFL Picks – Week 4: Browns at Raiders

The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

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CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I don’t need to tell you that the Browns have lots of problems. They just lost to the Giants, for crying out loud. However, there are some serious issues with this team beyond just Deshaun Watson’s ineptitude.

Watson sucks, but he’s not getting any blocking either. He normally has terrific offensive linemen in front of him, but Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin haven’t been healthy all year. That’s not all, as Wyatt Teller got knocked out of last week’s game and will miss some action going forward. This is a horrible situation against the Raiders under normal circumstances.

The circumstances may not be quite normal, however. Both Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins were limited in last week’s practice. They clearly weren’t 100 percent last week, but their health could improve after another week. They’ll be able to generate more pressure on Watson than they did on Andy Dalton because Cleveland’s offensive line is in much worse shape, and we know what will happen with Watson if he’s pressured heavily.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Browns also have problems on this side of the ball. Myles Garrett is the issue, or rather his health. Garrett has a foot injury that will require surgery in the offseason. He’s opting to play through it, which is gutsy. However, it means that Garrett won’t be as effective as usual.

This has to be music to the Raiders’ ears because their offensive line is the weak point of the roster. The Browns couldn’t rattle Daniel Jones last week, so I’m not confident that things will automatically improve against either Gardner Minshew.

Speaking of Minshew, Antonio Pierce suggested that there could be a quarterback swap this week. That would make sense, but Pierce said he’ll be going back to Minshew. Perhaps a quarterback switch will spark the Raiders like it did the Panthers.

RECAP: Both teams suffered embarrassing losses last week. The Raiders’ defeat was more of an emotional letdown, as they upset the Ravens across the country and then had to take on an 0-2 Panthers squad. The Browns, conversely, lost because they suffered so many injuries in the trenches. Several offensive linemen were missing by the end, while Garrett was clearly not 100 percent.

The Raiders’ problems are much more correctable unless the Browns are suddenly healthy again. This does not seem likely, especially given that Garrett has declared that he needs surgery. The Browns will likely be down multiple offensive linemen once again as well. The Raiders have some injury concerns, too, but there’s a much better chance that their defensive linemen can bounce back and be healthy this week.

Despite this, the Raiders are just one-point favorites at home. Given Cleveland’s injuries, and Watson’s incompetence, I like the Raiders to cover this short number.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lots of missed practices. Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin were out Wednesday, while Maxx Crosby was sidelined as well. I won’t have any interest in betting the Raiders if Crosby misses this week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Everyone knows Cleveland’s issues. The Browns are down three offensive linemen for this game with Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin ruled out again. The Raiders would look appealing, except they’ve suffered lots of injuries on their own. Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams are both out. So is right tackle Thayer Munford. This is a huge disappointmen because the Raiders looked very appealing, but I can’t bet them now, even as a home underdog.

PLAYER PROP: I like Brock Bowers to go over receiving yards. Bowers has eclipsed 50 yards in two games, and he’ll have extra targets and snaps this week because both Davante Adams and Michael Mayer are both out. If you’re wondering how the Browns handle tight ends, they surrendered 65 receiving yards to Brenton Strange. The best number is over 49.5 receiving yards -130 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I wish the Raiders were healthier because they looked like a great bet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t touched this game, but I’m actually going to bet the Raiders. Why? Because there are +3 lines available. You can get +3 -118 at DraftKings. A team like the Browns with an awful quarterback and three injured offensive linemen shouldn’t be favored by a field goal on the road. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Browns -1.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 51% (73,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Kevin Stefanski is 14-22 ATS as a favorite. ???

Raiders are 19-34 ATS as home favorites since November 2005. ???

Opening Line: Browns -1.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Dome.