2024 NFL Picks – Week 4: Vikings at Packers

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: This is the battle of the Head Coach of the Year candidates through three weeks of the season. Both have coached up quarterbacks given up for a dead to a combined 5-0 record. What Matt LaFleur has done is more impressive because Sam Darnold was at least a top-three draft choice. Malik Willis was a third-round pick the Titans thoughtlessly discarded, yet he looked like the second coming of Michael Vick last week.

It remains to be seen if “No Cookie” Jordan Love will be ready to play this game, but given Willis’ success, LaFleur could opt to roll with the backup for one more game. If so, we may see Willis’ worst performance. Backup quarterbacks typically struggle against elite defenses, and Minnesota qualifies as such. The Vikings are third in defensive EPA after putting the clamps on C.J. Stroud. Brian Flores is a brilliant defensive coordinator who will be able to confuse Willis.

The Packers won’t be able to establish the run well enough to save Willis. The Vikings are stout against ground attacks, ranking sixth in that category.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: While Willis has been Vick 2.0 through two games, Sam Darnold has resembled Peyton Manning. I’ve seen some “Darnold for MVP” campaigns already popping up, though if I were to give that award to a Viking, it would be Justin Jefferson.

Speaking of Jefferson, he has a favorable matchup in this game. That wouldn’t have been the case a few years ago when Jaire Alexander was a shutdown cornerback, but Alexander has regressed due to multiple injuries recently. The Packers won’t be able to disrupt the Darnold-to-Jefferson connection because Darnold is protected by one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in the NFL.

I don’t, however, expect much from Minnesota’s rushing attack. I know this is a revenge game for Aaron Jones, but the Packers are fifth versus the rush after putting the clamps on Jonathan Taylor and Tony Pollard.

RECAP: It’s unclear if Love will play yet, but I’m going to like the Vikings either way. If Love suits up, he may not be 100 percent. I like fading banged-up quarterbacks, so this would be a nice opportunity to do that. If Love is out again, we’ll be able to fade Willis against Flores.

I know the Packers are 2-0 with Willis, but they’ve beaten a banged-up Colts team and the inept Titans. The Vikings are a different story. They’re third in defensive EPA, so that greatly favors them over a backup quarterback. Plus, Flores’ schemes will befuddle Willis.

We’ll see if Love plays or not. I’d prefer Willis, but I’ll be on the Vikings regardless. The unit count is what is yet to be determined.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a lot of money coming in on the Vikings, which makes them less appealing as a public dog. Also, Garrett Bradbury missed Wednesday’s practice, so that’s something to monitor.

SATURDAY NOTES: We don’t have any clarity on Jordan Love yet. Love was limited every day in practice, but that’s what happened last week. Some news here is that Jaire Alexander could be out after being downgraded from limited to DNP on Friday. My final decision will come once we know Love’s status Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jordan Love will play, but at what capacity? I like the Vikings more with Love in because he may not be 100 percent. Jaire Alexander is out as well, but he’s kind of washed up. The sharps aren’t on this one. If you bet the Vikings, please bet the +3, which you can get for -120 vig at Bookmaker and BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -2.

Computer Model: None.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

The Vikings have become a huge public dog.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 81% (137,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Teams have split the past 4 years.

Packers are 65-40 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Matt LaFleur is 51-35 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Patchy fog, 72 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.