2024 NFL Picks – Week 4: Saints at Falcons

The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Disaster struck for the Falcons in the second quarter against the Chiefs. They were moving the chains efficiently, beginning the game with a touchdown drive, but they lost two key members of the offensive line when Kaleb McGary and Drew Dalman got hurt. Both will sorely be missed in this matchup.

The Falcons had a quality offensive line, but that’s no longer the case without McGary and Dalman. The Saints have generated lots of pressure on opposing quarterbacks this season, so that will continue with two-fifths of the blocking unit not available. This is troublesome for Kirk Cousins, who struggles with pressure more than most quarterbacks in the NFL.

The absences of McGary and Dalman will also affect the rushing attack. Despite surrendering a long touchdown run to Saquon Barkley, the Saints are eighth against the run, so they’ll be able to keep Bijan Robinson in check on most instances.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints had their own injury with Eric McCoy going down. McCoy was sorely missed against the Eagles, as the Saints could no longer protect as well as they did to begin the year. However, New Orleans has just one injury, so this is something the Saints can counter with some game planning. It was difficult to make an in-game adjustment, but it’ll be much easier to have a whole week to prepare for one injury as opposed to multiple like the Falcons have.

Besides, the Falcons don’t bring much pressure on the quarterback. Matthew Judon and Grady Jarrett each have a couple of sacks, but that’s it. This won’t be like last week when Philadelphia’s defense swarmed Derek Carr and disrupted anything he and the offense were trying following the opening drive.

Atlanta also has to worry about Alvin Kamara. The Eagles put the clamps on Kamara, as Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis performed well together for the first time all year. The Falcons have the 10th-worst ground defense, so they’re going to have to pay extra attention to Kamara, which should allow Carr to thrive off play-action opportunities.

RECAP: If you didn’t click the link above, you didn’t see that I have the Saints in the underrated teams list. It seems as though the public isn’t thinking of them highly as much because of last week’s loss. There’s no shame in suffering a defeat to the Eagles, however, and New Orleans was hurt by the injury to McCoy. It’s very difficult to make in-game adjustments to offensive line injuries, particularly to those at center, so that would explain why the Saints dropped their first game of the year despite being favored.

It’s unclear what McCoy’s status is, but if he can play, it’s hard not to like the Saints, given the issues Atlanta currently has with its offensive line. It’s nice that we’re getting some line value with the Saints, who should be favored according to my projected line and the EPA numbers. In fact, the Saints should be -6.5 according to EPA!

I will still like the Saints if McCoy is sidelined, albeit to a lesser extent. Having an entire week to prepare without McCoy will allow the Saints to recover offensively, though they still won’t be as potent as they could be on that side of the ball.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I wrote that I favored the Saints because they were missing one lineman instead of the Falcons, who would be down two blockers. Well, Eric McCoy is out, while Cesar Ruiz missed Wednesday’s practice with a knee. He also left the game early last week, so if he misses, it’s going to be difficult for the Saints to move the chains. I’m actually going to switch sides and select the Falcons, but I still don’t envision myself betting this game.

PLAYER PROP: I like Bijan Robinson under rushing yards. Robinson has eclipsed 70 rushing yards just once in three games, and now he’ll be without two offensive linemen. Robinson is going against the league’s No. 8 rush defense, so he’ll have issues reaching this figure. I wanted to wager on this one early before the number is bet down. The best number is under 76.5 -110 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: Not only will the Saints be missing Erik McCoy and Cesar Ruiz; they’ll also be without Demario Davis, which is a huge loss for the middle of the defense. Despite these injuries, and as well as the fact that the Falcons’ three opponents currently have an 8-1 record, the Saints are getting all the public money. This is also a revenge game from last year where the Saints called an audible and scored on the final snap. The Falcons look like a solid play.

LOCKED IN: I’m going to lock in the Falcons -2.5 -113 for three units. It was just announced that Chris Olave is a game-time decision. If he’s ruled out, we won’t see this number. If he plays, I’d still like Atlanta. You can get -2.5 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I already locked this in. Unfortunately, Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara will play despite being iffy coming into the game, but they may not be 100 percent. The sharps haven’t touched this one. The best line is Falcons -2.5 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -1.5.

Computer Model: Saints -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Tons of money on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 76% (112,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 10 of the last 13 meetings.

Derek Carr is 7-14 ATS as a road favorite. ???

Opening Line: Falcons -1.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.