2024 NFL Picks – Week 4: Rams at Bears

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams looked like they would drop to 0-3 when they were trailing the 49ers by double digits, but Matthew Stafford exploded with a brilliant second half. He torched the 49ers while successfully deploying Kyren Williams, who scored three touchdowns. Though the Rams were missing multiple interior offensive linemen, it helped that they had both tackles on the field for the first time all year.

With Williams getting better blocking as a result of Alaric Jackson’s return, you have to like his chances of being productive in this game. The Bears just showed a major weakness to the run last week, as Jonathan Taylor ripped through their defense with ease. Tony Pollard did similar things in Week 1.

Williams thriving will make things much easier for Stafford. Cooper Kupp won’t be available, so Stafford needs all the help he can get. The Bears generate a fair amount of pressure on the quarterback, so Stafford will need to lean on Williams with two interior blockers still sidelined.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Caleb Williams had a horrendous NFL debut in what should’ve been a loss to the Titans. He has gotten better in each game since, but has interestingly lost both succeeding games.

Williams will have a chance to have his best performance yet. The Rams secondary is a complete mess because of multiple injuries. Los Angeles just had major problems stopping Jauan Jennings, so D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze will be able to thrive in this matchup.

The one concern I have with the Bears in this contest is their offensive line. The unit can’t run block at all, and it’s not like D’Andre Swift is doing anything to compensate for that. The Rams can also generate a fair amount of pressure on the quarterback, so Williams could be forced into some turnovers again.

RECAP: It should come as no surprise that the public is on the underdog in this matchup. Everyone just saw the Rams mount a great comeback versus the 49ers, after all. However, the Rams were outgained by about 130 yards and more than one yard per play. They won because Trent Williams got banged up. Had that not happened, the Rams would be 0-3 right now, and no one would have any interest in them at +2.5.

Despite the public interest in the Rams, the line might be short against the Bears. According to EPA, Chicago should be -3.5, and the advance spread was -4. The Bears have not looked good this year, but this is a very easy matchup for their offense, as the Rams’ miserable defense has been gashed by everyone this year.

I’m going to take the value and pick Chicago, though I don’t have much of an interest in betting on this team as a favorite. If I were betting Chicago, I would also worry about the colossal coaching mismatch with Sean McVay going against Matt Eberflus.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Cooper Kupp in practice, but that was expected. The sharps are on the Bears, which is not very surprising.

PLAYER PROP: I love D’Andre Swift under rushing yards. I wanted to lock this in before the number disappears because it’s so absurd. The total is 37.5 even though Swift has yet to top 30 rushing yards in a single game this year. Even better, it’s been reported that the Bears want to give Roschon Johnson more touches this week. The best number is under 37.5 rushing yards -120 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: Keenan Allen may return for Chicago, but he doesn’t move the needle for me at this stage of his career. Besides, his return won’t fix Chicago’s flaws. I’m still very neutral on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still don’t know what to do with this game, but if you want to tail the sharps, they’re on the Bears. The best Chicago line is -3 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -4.

Computer Model: Bears -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The Rams are a public underdog.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 79% (121,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bears -1.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 69 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.