2024 NFL Picks – Week 4: Patriots at 49ers

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Brock Purdy was tagged with back soreness on Monday, which is likely because he, along with Jauan Jennings, carried the rest of the team against the Rams. It wasn’t quite enough, as the Rams were able to engineer a comeback victory to prevail at the very end.

Purdy’s back is the least of the 49ers’ concerns. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle were already out, and matters got worse when Trent Williams was knocked out of Sunday’s game. Williams was able to return to action after a brief exit, but it was clear that he wasn’t 100 percent. Perhaps he’ll be at full strength for this matchup, but he could be hindered with an injury. If so, San Francisco’s offense won’t be nearly as effective as it could be.

On the bright side for the 49ers, they may get George Kittle back in the lineup. The Patriots are very weak to the pass, as seen in their previous two performances, so if Purdy, Williams and Kittle are all healthy, San Francisco should have some offensive fireworks in this game.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The injuries are beginning to creep into the 49ers defense. Javon Hargrave was lost for the season with torn triceps, which is very unfortunate for the 49ers because they lost Arik Armstead during the offseason. They aren’t very deep at defensive tackle, so they could be susceptible to the run.

Rhamondre Stevenson was phased out of last week’s game because the Patriots were so far behind. That could obviously happen again, but if the Patriots can hang around, Stevenson should be able to have some nice gains, much like Kyren Williams did last week. San Francisco is shockingly 29th against the run.

If the Patriots do fall behind, it’s going to be very difficult for them to sustain any sort of offense. We’ll see a mirror image of last week’s game in which they produced just 130 net yards of offense. Their dreadful offensive line is just too weak to fend off Nick Bosa and the rest of San Francisco’s pass rushers.

RECAP: The Patriots are the worst team in the NFL according to both my NFL Power Rankings and the EPA numbers. Thus, it would take a lot for me to pick them.

“A lot” could refer to the number of injuries the 49ers have. They lost Hargrave in addition to all the offensive players who missed last week’s game, but there’s a chance that one of Kittle or Samuel returns, which would give them more of a chance to play up to their ability and destroy the Patriots. This is what they would do under normal circumstances, given that they’re coming off consecutive losses.

I’m going to pencil in the 49ers for now, but if they have way too many injuries to cover a high spread, I’m going to switch for New England. Stay tuned for updates later in the week, or follow @walterfootball.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: George Kittle returned to practice, but Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel missed Wednesday’s session. Williams was out with an illness, but I wouldn’t be worried about his status.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams have major injury woes. George Kittle will be back for the 49ers, but Trent Williams was DNP on Friday after practicing fully Thursday. He could play, but may not be 100 percent again. Deebo Samuel looks iffy to play as well. Meanwhile, the Patriots lost another offensive lineman, as Michael Jordan will be sidelined. Jonathan Jones is also iffy to play. If we get some crazy one-sided news prior to kickoff, I may place a bet on one of these teams, but it’s impossible to handicap this game at the moment.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The inactives list will be huge. I may bet this game depending on what those look like.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel will both play, which is a bummer because these inactives would have made New England look appealing. As it stands now, I can’t bet on this game. The sharps aren’t doing so either. If you want the 49ers, you can get -10 -112 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -9.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -9.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

No one wants to bet on New England?

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 70% (75,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Patriots are 29-16 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Brock Purdy is 20-6 SU, 14-12 ATS.

Opening Line: 49ers -10.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Sunny, 74 degrees. Light wind.