2024 NFL Picks – Week 4: Bills at Ravens

The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Walt Goes to Vegas 2024, Part 2: Stranger Prices. Read about how I got ripped off in Las Vegas.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens had a simple game plan against the Cowboys. They were going to run the ball with Derrick Henry, and they were going to run the ball Lamar Jackson. That was basically it. Jackson threw just 15 times against Dallas in what was a one-sided affair until fourth-quarter garbage time.

The Ravens will not be able to utilize this strategy Sunday night. While the Cowboys are the worst team in the NFL against the run, the Bills thrive against it. They’re in the top 10 versus the rush despite missing multiple linebackers, so they should be able to handle Derrick Henry. I do worry about Jackson, however.

Jackson will have to throw more in this game. This won’t be great for him because he’s not protected very well. The Ravens, as I’ve stated countless times thus far, lost three offensive linemen this offseason. They haven’t blocked nearly as well, which is troubling for this matchup because the Bills can generate pressure on the quarterback.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: I thought the Bills were going to have issues generating consistent offense during the early portion of the season. Yet, they’ve produced 102 points in the past two-and-a-half games despite Josh Allen going through a growing phase with his new receiving corps.

This would have been a great test for Allen in past years because the Ravens used to maintain one of the better defenses in the NFL. That, however, is no longer the case. Baltimore has issues generating pressure on the quarterback on a consistent basis, and the team struggles to cover. We saw this when Gardner Minshew torched the Baltimore cornerbacks in a great comeback victory in Week 2.

The Bills don’t have the same level of receiver that the Raiders do – it’s obviously not even close – but Allen’s ability to scramble will give the Ravens issues. Another offseason departure was Patrick Queen, who was also not properly replaced.

RECAP: The Ravens were -1.5 on the advance spread. Following Buffalo’s blowout victory over Jacksonville on Monday night, I was expecting the Bills to be favored.

That, shockingly, has not been the case. In fact, the Ravens are now -2.5! I then thought that the Bills would be getting public money, but that hasn’t been the case either.

I’ve been down on both teams entering the year, so I don’t like either side. I’ve been more bearish on the Ravens because of their offensive line woes, so I will be siding with the Bills, but for no units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As if Baltimore’s offensive line wasn’t bad enough, Tyler Linderbaum popped up on the injury report with a knee. He missed Wednesday’s practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tyler Linderbaum could miss this game with an injury, but he was upgraded each day in practice, so things are looking good for him. I still have no lean on this game, but I like the Bills in a teaser. I’m going to tease them with the Chiefs.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: My favorite prop from this game is Lamar Jackson over 59.5 rushing yards. We keep pounding this, and it keeps hitting. Jackson tends to run more on national TV, and he has to scramble more often this year anyway because his offensive line is so dreadful. The best number is over 56.5 -120 at BetMGM.

I’m throwing the Jackson over rushing prop into a parlay with the following: Khalil Shakir over receiving yards, Dalton Kincaid over receiving yards, and Justice Hill over receiving yards. Shakir has seen an increased target count every week, and he has caught every target thus far. Kincaid has a great matchup against a Baltimore defense that has been gashed by tight ends the past two weeks. And Hill looks good because the Bills are down two linebackers and have consequently been weak to receiving backs. This $25 parlay pays $200 at BetMGM.

TEASER: I’m teasing the Chiefs and Bills. As a favorite of seven or more, Patrick Mahomes is 47-6 straight up in his career, and I can’t see him losing to a Charger team missing all of its best players. The Bills, meanwhile have lost by nine or more just twice in the Josh Allen era. I’m betting this six-point teaser -120 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still don’t like either side. The best move is Buffalo on a teaser.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Chiefs leg of the teaser hit, so let’s hope the Bills keep this margin within 8.5. I don’t have a lean on either side of the true line, though the sharps have a lean on Baltimore. The best line is +2.5 -102 at FanDuel and DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -1.5.

Computer Model: Bills -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Tons of public money coming in on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 73% (208,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.