2024 NFL Picks – Week 4: Jaguars at Texans

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

I love getting messages like this during the game, and yet no apologies about it after the fact when I’m proven correct.

Here’s another type of message:

To Nike Golf and the 10 people who liked his nonsensical post, how old do you guys think I am? I’m not THAT old!

Here’s an existential question:

The teeth problems are true. I once had 19 cavities during a trip to the dentist. Thanks to all my issues and constant visits, my dentist was able to retire early. I’m not exaggerating.

Here’s someone berating our mock drafts:

Also true. Charlie was first in accuracy for like the fourth time in 10 years. If that is “dog s**t,” then everything must be even worse than dog s**t for Zach.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence just keeps getting worse and worse. Lawrence had a great first year under Doug Pederson, leading his team to the second round of the playoffs following a brilliant comeback versus the Chargers. However, Lawrence has regressed in each of his past two seasons. He looked completely lost versus Buffalo.

There are many things to blame, including Pederson. The offensive line is also a disaster. This presents a great problem against the Texans, who rush the passer extremely well. They already have 13 sacks on the year, which is a very high number for just three games. They’ll pressure Lawrence heavily and force him into more mistakes.

It should at least be noted that the Texans have some liabilities in the secondary that can be exploited on the rare occasions in which Lawrence has time to throw. The Texans were just torched by Sam Darnold, after all. They also struggle against the run, so perhaps Jacksonville will be able to establish Travis Etienne and allow Lawrence to operate in favorable situations.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Lawrence and the offensive line are just part of the reason why the Jaguars are 0-3 right now. The defense has also been horrendous. The secondary, which famously allowing Jake Browning to look like Joe Montana a year ago, has not been fixed. This is why Khalil Shakir resembled Jerry Rice on Monday night.

C.J. Stroud had a great 2024 debut against the Colts, but hasn’t followed up with anything similar since. That trend could snap this week, as Stroud has a very favorable matchup. The Jaguars couldn’t even cover Shakir and the other Bills receivers, so how will they deal with Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell?

The Jaguars can at least say they can handle the run well, but given how unfavorable the passing conditions are for them, it won’t matter very much. Not only can Jacksonville not cover any receivers, but it also can’t get after the quarterback. Its pass rush has been a huge disappointment. I mentioned that the Texans have 13 sacks. Jacksonville only has four.

RECAP: Upon getting blown out by the Vikings, Stroud had the following to say to the media: “It’s time to go back to work.”

I loved hearing this, as betting on good quarterbacks following a loss (especially a blowout) is one of my favorite angles. It’s a small sample size, but Stroud is 5-2 against the spread following a defeat thus far in his career. All of the good quarterbacks have a great records like this.

Regardless, the Texans are a much better team than the Jaguars. Jacksonville has severe blocking issues that Houston can easily exploit. The Jaguars also struggle to cover receivers, which will be very problematic against all of Houston’s wideouts.

I love the Texans this week and plan on betting them heavily. My only hangup is that the Jaguars are coming off a blowout loss, which tends to benefit teams (55% cover rate for defeats of 30+), but Houston was also blown out, so this shouldn’t be an issue.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tank Dell missed Wednesday’s practice, but I don’t think that’s something to worry about. The Texans should have their way with Jacksonville.

SATURDAY NOTES: It was believed that the Jaguars could miss their top two linebackers. The good news is that Devin Lloyd will play. The bad news is that Foye Oluokun is out. The only real argument you can make here is that the Jaguars will be looking to bounce back off a blowout loss, but the Texans are coming off the same result.

PLAYER PROP: I like C.J. Stroud over passing yards. Stroud has yet to eclipse 260 passing yards yet, so betting the over 258 may seem problematic. However, in three games, he’s battled defenses ranked 16th, fourth, and third in EPA. The Jaguars are 28th. Jacksonville also plays a ton of man, which Stroud ordinarily devours. The best number is over 264.5 -115 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Jaguards are in rough shape. They’re down their top two linebackers, as Devin Lloyd has been ruled out. The sharps are still on Jacksonville though, but keep in mind that the sharps loved them versus the Bills on Monday night as well. The best line is -5.5 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

Both teams are coming off blowout losses.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -4.5.

Computer Model: Texans -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Slight lean on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 62% (116,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 21 of the last 27 meetings.

Opening Line: Texans -4.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.