2024 NFL Picks – Week 4: Chiefs at Chargers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Jim Harbaugh is obviously a great coach, but he had his first misstep with the Chargers last week. With Justin Herbert dealing with both a plantar fascia and a high ankle sprain, the wise decision would’ve been to hold him out of the game against the Steelers so he could rest up for a battle against the Chiefs. Instead, Herbert played and aggravated his injury. As a result, the Chargers could lose two games.

This line makes it seem as though Herbert will be sidelined. Taylor Heinicke will likely start, and he’s not the worst option. He’s a gritty quarterback who has won games on bad teams in the past. He also doesn’t face much of a challenge with the Chiefs ranking 21st in defensive EPA. The best thing the Chiefs do on this side of the ball is rush the passer, and Heinicke will be decently protected, assuming Ra’Shawn Slater can play. Joe Alt is out, so Slater’s availability will be huge.

Regardless, Heinicke will lean on J.K. Dobbins. The former Raven has been spectacular this year, leading the NFL in yards per carry after contact heading into Week 3. The Chiefs are weak to the run, so the Chargers should be able to control the clock on the ground.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Despite Patrick Mahomes’ presence under center, the Chiefs haven’t been very great on this side of the ball. They’re 11th in offensive EPA, so this is not the offensive explosion many were anticipating.

The primary issue for the Chiefs is their tackle production. They cannot block on the edge, which is a huge problem for this matchup if Joey Bosa is able to play. Bosa was knocked out of last week’s game, but if he and Khalil Mack can suit up, they can hound Mahomes without blitzing, which is crucial to beating him.

The Chiefs can’t exactly turn to their running game either. Isiah Pacheco is out, and while Carson Steele had some nice runs on Sunday night, he’s not exactly going to threaten the Chargers’ defense, which ranks fourth against the run.

RECAP: This line assumes Herbert will be sidelined. If so, I will be on the Chargers.

I know this doesn’t make much sense, but backup quarterbacks tend to cover against non-elite defenses. The Chiefs’ defense hasn’t been very good this year, showing poorly versus the Bengals and Falcons. They’re 21st in defensive EPA. Remember, they lost some personnel this offseason, so they’re not as potent on this side of the ball as they were last season.

The Chiefs also don’t tend to win by high margins during the early portion of the season. Recall how they nearly blew a game to the Zach Wilson-led Jets last year. They have bigger fish to fry later in the year, so they’re not going to go all out and beat teams that aren’t on their radar. The Chargers are in the division, but with Herbert sidelined, it’s hard to imagine Kansas City taking them seriously.

Of course, the Chargers have some other injuries as well. Alt and James will be sidelined, for example. If they’re missing many more players, it’ll be difficult to bet them, but as for now, I’m comfortable with a medium-sized wager on the Chargers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Good news/bad news for the Chargers. The good news is that Justin Herbert sounds like he has a chance to play. The bad news is that Joey Bosa, Joe Alt, and Rashawn Slater all missed Wednesday’s practice, while Derwin James’ one-game suspension was upheld.

SATURDAY NOTES: I want no part of the Chargers. Justin Herbert may play, but the Chargers will be without both tackles, Joey Bosa, and Derwin James. In fact, these injuries make me want to switch to the Chiefs.

PLAYER PROP: I like the Xavier Worthy under receiving yards. Worthy hasn’t caught more than two passes in a single game yet, but everyone remembers his two touchdowns from Week 1. Let’s fade the overreaction. The best number is under 37.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

TEASER: I’m teasing the Chiefs and Bills. Explanation in the Bills-Ravens capsule.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: What I said about the Raiders applies to the Chargers. The Chargers looked like a great side, but not with all their injuries.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Justin Herbert will play, but the Chargers are down so many players. I’m still leaning toward the Chiefs, while the sharps haven’t taken a side. The best line is -7 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chargers.

The Chiefs are coming off a win on national TV and now go against a backup quarterback.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -8.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -4.

Computer Model: Chiefs -5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 56% (97,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Chiefs have won 17 of the last 20 meetings.

Patrick Mahomes is 87-24 SU, 61-49 ATS (49-36 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 6-0 ATS in the initial divisional matchup of the year as long as he’s not favored by -7 or more. ???

Patrick Mahomes is 6-10 ATS as a road favorite of 7+.

Chargers are 21-30 ATS in San Angeles.

Justin Herbert is 5-0-1 ATS as an underdog of 6+. ???

Opening Line: Chiefs -9.5.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: Dome.