2024 NFL Picks – Week 4: Broncos at Jets

The Matchup. Edge: Jets.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets got off to a shaky start with a blowout loss in San Francisco, but have improved ever since. The Jets had a strong offensive showing Thursday night, as Aaron Rodgers looked like he was in MVP form once again. The only bad thing you could say about that performance was that he and Garrett Wilson didn’t have the best chemistry, but that will surely change.

Despite the good vibes, the Jets could regress in this matchup. The Broncos have what it takes to eliminate, or at least limit the Jets’ top two threats. Patrick Surtain II is arguably the best cornerback in the NFL. He just shut down Mike Evans, and he’ll be able to do the same with Wilson. Thus, it’s a good thing that Rodgers has a good connection with Allen Lazard, Tyler Conklin, and Mike Williams.

The Broncos are also solid against the run. This obviously affects Breece Hall. Then again, Hall is capable of going the distance any time he touches the ball, both as a runner and a receiver. He’s also gotten the best of the Broncos in two career matchups against them.

DENVER OFFENSE: Bo Nix looked lost in his first two games, but finally came to life against the Buccaneers. He torched Tampa Bay’s secondary and ran circles around them while scrambling en route to a blowout victory.

Nix faces a much tougher test this week than a banged-up Tampa Bay defense. The Jets have great talent in their secondary, so it’ll be difficult for his receivers to get open. The Jets also produce a ton of pressure on the quarterback, so Nix will consider himself fortunate that he’s protected well. Mike McGlinchey being injured is not ideal, but Alex Palczewski handled himself well as a replacement.

The Jets have a weakness defensively, and that would be their inability to stop the run. Javonte Williams has been a disappointment, but perhaps the Broncos will turn to Tyler Badie, who looked impressive last week, albeit in garbage time.

RECAP: We had a big bet on the Broncos last week. We’re going back to the well. Denver took advantage of a Tampa Bay team that was flat off a revenge game against the Lions, and it will have a similar situation in this game.

I’ll be shocked if the Jets even show up to play against Denver. Not only are they coming off a big win on “national TV” last Thursday when they beat the Patriots; they have to travel to London to take on the undefeated Vikings following this game. There’s a long history of big favorites struggling going into London (favorites of -4 or more are 12-18 ATS), and the Jets should be the latest team to suffer a letdown.

Besides, the Broncos have the personnel to slow down the Jets offense. They stop the run well and can limit No. 1 receivers. The Jets funnel their offense through two players, and Denver can restrict that sort of attack.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing new to add here. Both teams are fairly healthy with there being only three players on the injury report.

SATURDAY NOTES: The only significant non-IR player to miss this game will be C.J. Mosley. Again, there’s nothing new to add here, as I still like the Broncos.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no injury news of note, and the sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is +8 -102 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Jets, coming off a divisional win, have this game, and then travel overseas.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -8.

Computer Model: Jets -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Slight action on the Jets.

Percentage of money on New York: 62% (126,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Aaron Rodgers is 130-88 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Jets -8.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 67 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.