2024 NFL Picks – Week 4: Steelers at Colts

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 2-5 ATS through two weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Buccaneers -5

Raiders -5.5

Bengals -7.5

Bills -5

The public got slaughtered again. They are now 3-8 ATS. Between losing these bets and taking out loans to buy groceries, the common man isn’t doing so well these days.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

49ers -10

Eagles -2

Browns +1

Lions -4

Steelers -2

We’ll see if the public continues to lose money this week.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers won some ugly football games in the first two weeks of the season, but it wasn’t so bad this past week. Justin Fields focused on just playing mistake-free football versus the Falcons and Broncos, but he was more daring against the Chargers. He had an unfortunate interception on a deflection, but he delivered a downfield strike touchdown to Calvin Austin and scrambled for chunks of yardage to help his team improve to 3-0.

Fields and Najee Harris will have plenty of success running in this game. The Colts have a dreadful run defense, thanks to numerous injuries in the front seven. DeForest Buckner’s absence is most painful, as there’s a huge void in the interior of the Indianapolis defensive line. It’s not a good week to be missing someone like Buckner.

The Colts also have problems with their secondary. They’re down their No. 1 cornerback and already had issues covering on the outside. This has to be music to George Pickens’ ears, as Pickens missed out on a huge game two weeks ago because of penalties.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: I read a perfect tweet about Anthony Richardson following the Bears game. I don’t know who said it, but it went something like, “Richardson makes throws that 99 percent of quarterbacks can’t make, but he attempts passes that 99 percent of quarterbacks shouldn’t throw.” Something like that, but you get it. Richardson is a tremendous talent who delivers unbelievable passes, but he also makes way too many gaffes right now. Granted, he doesn’t have much starting experience, but his decision-making, touch, and accuracy consistency are horrendous.

This is not a good matchup for Richardson. He’s well protected by his offensive line, but he’ll be squaring off against Mike Tomlin, a defensive mastermind. Tomlin will throw stuff at Richardson that will confuse the young quarterback. This will undoubtedly create some turnovers, or perhaps cause Richardson to make some spectacular throws. It’s one or the other with him.

The Steelers will also take the running game away from Richardson. Despite Richardson’s blunders last week, Indianapolis was able to prevail because of Jonathan Taylor’s brilliant running. Taylor won’t have as many holes to burst through this week because the Steelers are No. 1 against the run.

RECAP: For the third consecutive week, I’ll mention the following: The general rule with Tomlin is that you want to back him as an underdog and fade him as a favorite. Tomlin has a winning spread record if he’s favored by a field goal or less, which is the case in this matchup.

Tomlin seems to have a favorable matchup against the Colts. Richardson has all the potential in the world, but he’s clueless in many areas. He can easily be confused, and Tomlin knows this. Tomlin should be able to throw some looks at Richardson that he’s never seen, which could lead to some turnovers. Richardson also won’t be able to lean on his rushing attack as much as he did last week because the Steelers are stout against the run.

Meanwhile, the Colts defense is in shambles, thanks to the numerous injuries it has on that side of the ball. The Steelers should once again be able to muster enough offense to prevail in an ugly game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s surprising to me that there isn’t much public money on the Steelers. There’s a fair amount, but I thought we could see 80 percent with the line below -3.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Colts are a disaster right now. They could be without two offensive linemen against Pittsburgh’s pass rush, as Ryan Kelly was DNP in practice Thursday and Friday, while Braden Smith was also DNP on Friday. Elsewhere, the Colts will be without DeForest Buckner, Kenny Moore, and Kwity Paye. Indianapolis has so many injuries, so Pittsburgh looks appealing.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Colts will have Braden Smith, but Ryan Kelly is sidelined. The sharps haven’t touched this game, and neither have I. If you like the Steelers, you can get a -2 -112 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -1.

Computer Model: Steelers -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

Slight lean on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 60% (143,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Opening Line: Steelers -1.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Dome.