2024 NFL Picks – Week 4: Titans at Dolphins

The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: I don’t understand how Mike McDaniel is a head coach in the NFL. Sure, he wears snazzy outfits, but he doesn’t seem to have a clue. McDaniel needed to attack the Seahawks via the run and utilize his best weapons last week with Tua Tagovailoa sidelined. Instead, De’Von Achane barely touched the ball – he had six touches by the time Skylar Thompson threw 13 passes – and Tyreek Hill caught one pass by the time Alec Ingold had three receptions. Apparently, McDaniel’s grand plan was to have his terrible quarterback throw to his fullback the entire game. I’m shocked that didn’t work.

McDaniel is clueless and can’t even compare to Matt LaFleur. I bring up LaFleur because he outwitted a Tennessee defense that currently ranks in the top 10 of EPA. I don’t know how LaFleur did it, but he had Malik Willis looking like the second coming of Michael Vick. McDaniel won’t be able to do that with Thompson, or Tim Boyle, or whichever dreck quarterback he decides to start this week.

Whichever quarterback starts for Miami has his work cut out for him. Not only will he be handicapped by McDaniel’s poor coaching; he’ll be confronted with a secondary with two No. 1 cornerbacks and a front seven loaded with talent. The Dolphins have issues with their blocking, especially with Terron Armstead now in concussion protocol, so they won’t be able to keep Jeffery Simmons, Harold Landry and company out of the backfield.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Speaking of dreck quarterbacks, Will Levis had some horrible moments against the Packers last week. He telegraphed a pick-six and later took a sack on third-and-short because he held on to the ball forever. Levis can make some spectacular throws because of his natural ability, but he has no idea what’s happening around him on the field. I’d say it’s shocking that Brian Callahan hasn’t turned to Mason Rudolph yet, but then again, he’s not nearly the excellent coach Mike Vrabel was. Perhaps firing Vrabel was a mistake.

Levis will have an opportunity to make some more blunders in this game. The Dolphins apply good pressure on the quarterback, and the Titans don’t pass protect all that well. This formula can obviously lead to disaster.

Then again, the Tennessee coaching staff can protect Levis by establishing Tony Pollard. This did not work last week because the Packers rank fifth in ground defense. The Dolphins, conversely, just allowed the talent-less Zach Charbonnet to trample them.

RECAP: I can’t believe I’m doing this again, but I’m going to bet heavily on the Titans. I suppose I’m a glutton for punishment, but I truly believe that they are a great side this week. If it weren’t for blocked punts in the first two weeks, we’d be 2-1, +$500ish with them, and we wouldn’t be thinking twice about a huge wager.

I love fading backup quarterbacks against great defenses. Despite what we saw from the Titans last week, they have a top-10 defense according to EPA. I’m going to chalk up last week’s performance to LaFleur simply outscheming the Titans because Tennessee’s defense was excellent the first two weeks, limiting the Bears to no touchdowns and the Jets to 17 offensive points. I don’t think McDaniel will be able to outscheme anything because he is a doofus.

Also, if the Dolphins start Boyle, it’s an automatic fade of the Dolphins. Boyle could be the worst quarterback the NFL has ever seen, and that’s not an exaggeration. I don’t think he’d even be a No. 2 in the CFL. There’s no reason for him to be in the league. We won’t have many more opportunities to bet against him, so this could be a rare chance to earn some free money.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Tyler Huntley will start for the Dolphins. He’s an upgrade over what they had in Week 3, but he’s still a backup quarterback going up against a top-10 defense.

SATURDAY NOTES: We still don’t know who’s starting for the Dolphins, but that player probably won’t have Terron Armstead, who has yet to practice. The Titans, meanwhile, could be without Jeffery Simmons on top of Chidobe Awuzie, who just landed on injured reserve. Losing Awuzie sucks, and I wonder if Tennessee would have a top 10-caliber defense without him and Simmons.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Jeffery Simmons is out, which sucks. I’m going to drop the unit count to three because Tennessee doesn’t have an elite defense without him and Chidobe Awuzie.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: I truly hate the injuries the Titans have on defense because that destroys my thesis about a backup quarterback battling a top-12 stop unit. Depending on the inactives, I may drop this unit count to two.

PLAYER PROPS AND SAME-GAME PARLAY: Tyreek Hill to score the first touchdown at +850 looks appealing. Hill usually has a much worse number than this, but it’s +850 because of the quarterbacking situation. However, the Titans are down multiple defenders, and Tyler Huntley will be a big upgrade over Skylar Thompson. You can find +850 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

I like Will Levis to throw an interception as well. Levis has thrown a pick in four of his five road games. He’s a disaster who will find a way to sabotage our pick. The best number is -132 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

We’re going to parlay De’Von Achane under 62.5 rushing yards, Tyreek Hill over 50.5 receiving yards, Calvin Ridley over 44.5 receiving yards, and Tyler Huntley over 165.5 passing yards. The Titans are stout against the run, so I don’t expect Achane to get much on the ground. However, given the injuries in Tennessee’s secondary, Huntley should have an easier time throwing the ball. Ridley should also do well, given that Jalen Ramsey is not healthy. This $25 parlay pays $170.52 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s sharp money coming in on the Dolphins, which is a bummer. I was worried about Tennessee’s injuries, but the team will only be missing Jeffery Simmons and Chidobe Awuzie. Granted, those are two talented players, but it could have been worse. I was looking for a viable +3 line, and there’s one available at DraftKings for -118 vig. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Titans -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -1.5.

Computer Model: Dolphins -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Looks like sharp money on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 55% (188,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.