2025 NFL Picks – Week 15: Browns at Bears

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai must be licking their chops if they’ve watched any film on the Titans-Browns game. Tony Pollard trampled through Cleveland’s defense with ease. Given that the Bears run block better than all but two teams in the NFL, Swift and Monangai must think that they’re both going to break the all-time single-game rushing record.

Obviously, that won’t be the case. The Browns were stout against the run heading into the Tennessee game, but must have had a low-energy effort for some reason. Sure, the team lost Maliek Collins to injury, but I don’t think he could have made that much of a difference. Perhaps I’m wrong, and if I am, Swift and Monangai will combine for 300 or so rushing yards.

Caleb Williams will be hoping that his two runners will pick up huge chunks of yardage because he has struggled lately. He was bailed out by Swift and Monangai in the Black Friday game, and he was finally exposed versus the Packers, where he made a horrible throw into the end zone. Williams is protected well, but no amount of protection will allow the Bears to avoid the inevitable, which will be Myles Garrett chasing after Williams at various points in this game. We’ll see if that translates into some turnovers.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: While we know the Browns can generate a great amount of pressure because of Garrett and other players on the front, the Bears cannot do that. They’re dead last in pressures, so Shedeur Sanders won’t have to drift 15 yards back in the pocket. Not that he’s done that very much lately, but regression could always happen.

Sanders had a solid game against the Titans. That was an easy matchup, but it’s not like Chicago has a fierce defense either. The Bears have gotten some players back from injury, however, including Jaylon Johnson, so I wouldn’t expect Jerry Jeudy to have a deep touchdown again. Harold Fannin could have a solid game, given that the Bears are a middling team when it comes to defending tight ends.

The Browns also project to do well in their running game, though that’s misleading. Quinshon Judkins will be going against Chicago’s 21st-ranked run defense, but the Bears should be better against ground attacks with T.J. Edwards returning from injury.

RECAP: If Cleveland’s run defense isn’t broken as a result of the Collins injury – and Collins isn’t even that good against the run – then the Browns are the right side. The Browns should be able to bounce back from a flat spot and an embarrassing loss to play hard against the Bears. Their defense should be able to rattle Williams, who has been shaky recently.

This is also a horrible spot for the Bears. Chicago has played a couple of tough games against the Eagles and Packers. Following this “easy” contest against the 3-10 Browns, they have to once again battle the Packers. After that, they’ll take on the 49ers and Lions. This is a classic sandwich situation.

Given that this line is too high – I don’t trust Williams or Chicago’s defense – and the poor spot the Bears are in, I’m inclined to back the Browns for 2-3 units. I don’t fully trust Sanders, but it’s not like he’ll be battling a tough defense that could give him lots of problems.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t know if I’ll be betting the Browns after all. Half of their starters were DNP in Wednesday’s practice. If this persists, Cleveland is going to have a skeleton crew on the field for this game, which will make things easy for Chicago.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was eager to see the Browns injury report because I thought we’d have a nice betting opportunity on Chicago. It’s bad, but it’s not that bad. Denzel Ward is out, while Mason Graham could be sidelined after being DNP-DNP-limited. Graham being sidelined after Maliek Collins was lost for the season would be a disaster for Cleveland against Chicago’s rushing attack. Also, the offensive line has some injuries. Jack Conklin and Wyatt Teller are out again, though Teller’s replacement was better than Teller last week. Conklin’s replacement, meanwhile, was passable. Now, center Ethan Pocic will be sidelined, and there’s a huge downgrade to Luke Wypler. There’s also a chance the Browns will be without their left guard, Joel Bitonio after he was DNP-DNP-limited throughout the week. His replacement is Zak Zinter, who is also on the injury report with a back injury (limited-DNP-DNP). The Browns don’t have any other interior linemen, so they’ll have to get creative if Bitonio and Zinter are sidelined. Thus, I’m going to switch my pick to the Bears, but I don’t know if these injuries are enough to get me to bet Chicago in what appears to be a poor spot.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Browns have a bunch of players inactive, but they’ll have Mason Graham and Joel Bitonio, so they’re not in terrible shape. The Bears, meanwhile, will have Rome Odunze available. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is -7.5 -104 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

After this “easy” game, the Bears take on the Packers, 49ers, and Lions.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -7.5.

Computer Model: Bears -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 55% (83,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Opening Line: Bears -7.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Sunny, 12 degrees. Light wind.