2024 NFL Picks – Week 1: Titans at Bears

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears had one of the best cap situations in the NFL this offseason, thanks in part to their ability to draft a rookie quarterback and pay him next-to-nothing compared to what veterans at the position make. I believed that Chicago was going to use this to its advantage by bolstering multiple areas of its roster, but it really signed just two players of note in D’Andre Swift and Keenan Allen. Rome Odunze was then drafted ninth overall to round out the receiving corps.

The Bears’ strength is their receivers, so that doesn’t bode well for them in this matchup. The Titans have also been busy this offseason, acquiring top talents at cornerback. In fact, they have two No. 1-caliber corners in L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie to help blanket the Chicago receivers as Caleb Williams becomes adjusted to real NFL game action. Williams will also have to deal with a swarming Tennessee pass rush.

The Titans made other key acquisitions on this side of the ball, obtaining Ernest Jones in a trade with the Rams, as well as T’Vondre Swift on Day 2 of the draft. Tennessee was already stout against the run, so these two players will be able to handle Swift.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: One area in which I really thought the Bears would hammer would be their defensive line. Sure, they traded for Montez Sweat at the 2023 trade deadline, but they don’t have much of a pass rush to go along with him.

The one weakness the Titans have is at quarterback, and that’s even an unknown because Will Levis has plenty of upside. Because the Bears don’t have much of a pass rush outside of Sweat, Levis could have a solid performance with his enhanced receiving corps that now features Calvin Ridley.

The Bears should at least be able to handle the run well. They were terrific against ground attacks last year, which will be key in this matchup because Tony Pollard looks like he has regained the explosion he was lacking in 2023 as a result of his broken foot.

RECAP: I mentioned earlier that I believed that the Falcons were one of two preseason hype teams heading into 2024 before I changed my opinion of them. The Bears are the other. Chicago is widely considered to be a playoff sleeper, yet Williams couldn’t even lead USC to a top-five finish in his conference. I know the Trojans didn’t have top-end talent last year, but can you say that the Bears do? I like Chicago a bit, but predicting them to make the playoffs just because Williams is now quarterbacking the team seems excessive.

Conversely, no one is taking the Titans seriously, but they should. Levis won’t scare anyone, but Tennessee’s defense looks to be the real deal. Asking Williams to navigate through such a talented stop unit in his first game is a bit too much.

With that in mind, this spread is way off. I have the Titans three spots ahead of the Bears in my NFL Power Rankings, so this line should be Chicago -1 at most. Yet, we’re getting more than a field goal with the Titans, which seems like a gift.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Bears have some key players on the injury report as limited participants – Montez Sweat, Keenan Allen, Ryan Bates – but there’s no indication that they’re in danger of missing this game, unfortunately.

SATURDAY NOTES: There isn’t much on the injury report after all. I still love the Titans to cover and potentially win outright.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting Tyjae Spears under 34.5 rushing yards. Spears eclipsed 34.5 rushing yards only four times last year, and he may have trouble doing this against a top-10 ground defense from a year ago. Also, Tony Pollard handled every snap on the opening drive of the final preseason game, while Spears was mixed in with the backups. The best number is over 267.5 -113 at BetMGM. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was sharp money on the Titans throughout the entire week, but other pro action has come in on the Bears -3.5 on Sunday morning, moving the line to -4. The best line is +4 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Bears -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Decent lean on the Titans.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 72% (140,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bears -4.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Sunny, 67 degrees. Light wind.