2024 NFL Picks – Week 1: Jaguars at Dolphins

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Steelers +3

Packers +2.5

Ravens +3

All underdogs!? What’s happening here?

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins would often get out to big leads versus the opposition last year and then sit on the ball in the second half with their potent ground attack. That won’t exactly be the formula this season.

There are two reasons for this, one of which I’ll discuss in the next section. The other is that the Dolphins lost their two best run-blocking offensive linemen, as Connor Williams and Robert Hunt departed for the Seahawks and Panthers, respectively. Even if the Dolphins get out to a big lead, they will have to throw more than they did last year.

That, however, won’t be much of a problem versus the Jaguars. Jacksonville had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL last year. While it should improve, it won’t be able to handle Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The other reason why the Dolphins won’t be able to get out to big leads and sit on the ball is because their defense will be much worse this year, at least until they get their talented edge rushers, Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, back from injury. And even still, the Dolphins lost other personnel on this side of the ball during the offseason.

This bodes well for the Jaguars, obviously. Trevor Lawrence doesn’t have the best offensive line, but Miami’s diminished pass rush means that the former No. 1 overall pick will be adequately protected. He’ll have enough time in the pocket to locate his numerous threats.

It remains to be seen how well the Dolphins will play against the run. Miami was ninth against ground attacks last year, but I imagine that ranking will be worse this year because of all the departed free agents.

RECAP: The first thing I did when handicapping this game was glance at the weather. It’s going to be 88 and sunny with 72-percent humidity in Miami this Sunday. This is extremely important because the Dolphins have such a huge advantage playing in the Miami heat. I know the Jaguars are accustom to Florida weather, but the Dolphins have designed their stadium so that their bench is in the shade, while the opposing bench is in the sun. This is why the opposition tends to wither away in second halves during Miami games early in the year.

I’m inclined to side with the Dolphins for this reason. If this game were being played in a fair environment, I would consider the Jaguars. They’re an underrated team with Lawrence back at full strength, while Miami will be missing several key defenders from a year ago. It would be nice to get more than a field goal with them. Plus, the Dolphins have to play against the Bills just four days after this game.

However, given Miami’s built-in advantage, I’m going to side with them. I will be monitoring the weather to see if something changes because if conditions are cooler than expected, then I may consider jumping ship to the Jaguars.

A couple of other things: First, I’m going to place a small bet on the over because there will be no defense played in this game. Second, I may live bet the Dolphins if we get a good number because of the sun/heat issue for Jacksonville.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Whatever -3s were out there are now gone, with -3.5 lines across the board. I’m seeing a tiny bit of sharp money on Miami, but nothing substantial.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was wrong about Miami’s injury situation. Jaelan Phillips will play, so I have interest in the Dolphins at -3. I plan on making a small bet on them.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting Tua Tagovailoa over 267.5 passing yards. When his receivers were healthy, and the weather was warm, Tagovailoa routinely went way over 267.5 passing yards. Jacksonville was poor versus the pass last year, and this could be a potential shootout, so Tagovailoa should have a great game. The best number is over 267.5 -113 at BetMGM. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was some pre-game drama with Tyreek Hill being detained for speeding. Hill will play, so this isn’t a concern for me. If you want to bet the Dolphins, the best line is -3.5 -102 at FanDuel. There’s no sharp action on either side.

The Motivation. Edge: Jaguars.

The Dolphins play against the Bills on Thursday, but this seems like a matchup in which they may focus.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Dolphins -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 52% (143,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Jaguars are 61-106 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Dolphins -3.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 88 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.