2024 NFL Picks – Week 1: Broncos at Seahawks

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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DENVER OFFENSE: There will be three rookie quarterbacks starting in Week 1. We already discussed Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. Bo Nix will get the nod for the Broncos after an excellent preseason. Before anyone gets excited, however, Daniel Jones and Kenny Pickett both had amazing preseason performances in recent years, and we’ve seen how their careers have unfolded. Nix’s showings in August will have no bearing on how he plays during real game action.

The challenge for Nix in this game will be dealing with Seattle’s secondary. The Seahawks have assembled a group of talented defensive backs that will cause problems for Denver’s receivers. The Broncos have nothing at the position beyond Courtland Sutton, and even he’s an overrated commodity.

There is good new for Nix, however, and that would be the injury to Uchenna Nwosu. Seattle had a much worse defense last year when Nwosu was injured. Not only was its pass rush diminished, but it also had issues stopping the run. Javonte Williams could have success in this matchup.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks won’t be the only team to struggle against the run in this game. Denver was far better versus the rush last year, but that may not be the case in 2024. The team lost talented linebacker Josey Jewell to the Panthers, and the Broncos had always been worse against the run when Jewell wasn’t in the lineup.

Kenneth Walker should be able to pick up decent chunks of yardage. I was skeptical of Walker’s 2024 outlook several months ago, but that changed when the front office signed Connor Williams, one of the best run-blocking linemen in the NFL. His presence will help Walker immeasurably.

Geno Smith will need to lean on Walker because of the coaching changes. Smith’s career was revived by Dave Canales two years ago, and then Greg Olson kept it alive. Both are gone, so Smith may regress, although he will be somewhat buoyed by a talented and deep receiving corps. The Broncos have Patrick Surtain II to lock down half the field, but the rest of Denver’s secondary looks to be in shambles.

RECAP: I noted earlier that the Bengals have a habit of beginning slowly in the Joe Burrow era. That is on a small sample size, however, and it’s nothing compared to the data we have with Sean Payton. Dating back to his Saints days, Payton is an atrocious 3-17 against the spread in Weeks 1-2 in the past decade. How is that even possible!? You’d think it may have changed last year with a new team, but he lost outright to the Raiders and Redskins at home last year.

I don’t see why things would suddenly change for Payton, so the Seahawks are the play. However, Seattle is not exactly an exciting play. The Seahawks are not a very good team, so I question them being favored by more than a field goal over anyone, even Denver. It’d be one thing if the Seahawks had a healthy Nwosu on their defense, but they’re missing such an important piece of their stop unit.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have been pounding the Seahawks, driving this line from -4.5 to -6. I can see the case for Seattle. If the Seahawks aren’t a bottom-half team, then betting them at -6 is certainly warranted against this crappy Denver squad. However, I have questions about the Seahawks with their new coaching staff, as well as their defense that won’t have Nwosu.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps bet the Seahawks earlier in the week, but haven’t really touched them at -6. I still have no interest in this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps finally bet the Seahawks at -6.5. This is one of the three largest public-sharp dichotomies in Week 1. The other two are Steelers/Falcons and Rams/Lions, where the public is on the former.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t bet the Seahawks at -6.5, but they’ve been on Seattle at every other number. If you want to bet on the Seahawks, the best line is -6.5 -107 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Seahawks -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Public on the Broncos, sharps on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Denver: 51% (132,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Sean Payton is 3-17 ATS in Weeks 1-2 since 2013.

Seahawks are 30-19 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Geno Smith is 3-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+.

Opening Line: Seahawks -4.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 76 degrees. Light wind.