2024 NFL Picks – Week 1: Cardinals at Bills

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: It’s the beginning of the NFL season, so I’m obligated to show you younger people what we currently miss with ESPN getting rid of NFL Primetime, which was the best football show on TV a long time ago:

This sequence was insane. A hurry-up offense while up 35-17 with four minutes remaining. A team going for two in a 45-13 game. An onside kick and a Hail Mary in a 45-13 game. Another Hail Mary in a 42-24 game. Crazy!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills had a disappointing offense in the first half of the 2023 season, but things changed when Joe Brady took over for an ineffective Ken Dorsey. Brady was able to fix the problems Dorsey created, but he’ll once again have his work cut out for him because of the diminished receiving corps.

There is a ton of missing air yards in Buffalo’s offense, with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis now in Houston and Jacksonville, respectively. Curtis Samuel was signed, but he’s banged up. Keon Coleman was a favorite of Josh Allen’s ahead of the draft, but it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be in his first game.

The Cardinals have one of the weaker secondaries in the NFL, and teams with outstanding receiving corps will have a field day throwing on them. The Bills are not one of those teams, however. Buffalo also can’t pound the ball with its running backs very well, so it’ll have to depend on Allen’s scrambles and throws to the tight ends to move the chains in this game.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Ask the casual fan which of these two teams has the superior offense, and most will say the Bills. However, the case can certainly be made for the Cardinals. Arizona’s offensive line looks to be superb, while a healthy Kyler Murray will have two dynamic targets at his disposal in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride.

The Bills, meanwhile, have some problems on this side of the ball as well. Matt Milano returning from injury was supposed to be a huge boon for their defense, but Milano got hurt again and will be out until at least December. Meanwhile, both starting safeties from a year ago are both gone. The middle of the field will be available for McBride and James Conner.

Buffalo still has some positive aspects to its stop unit, namely their pass rush. As discussed, however, the Cardinals have a talented offensive line, so Buffalo’s pass rush won’t be as potent as it normally would be against other opponents.

RECAP: I loved the Cardinals even before Milano’s injury. It feels as though there’s a major misconception for how these teams should be evaluated. Arizona is seen as a bad team, yet the Cardinals went into Houston, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia when Murray returned from injury last year, and nearly won the first contest before prevailing in the others. Now, a healthier Murray has Harrison Jr. at his disposal, so Arizona will be even more potent.

The Bills, meanwhile, will be ushering in a brand new receiving corps, so they’ll have to take some time to gel. The way to beat the Cardinals is to attack their poor secondary, yet Buffalo won’t be able to do that.

Before Milano got hurt, you could say that the Bills could thrive defensively in this matchup, but that’s not even the case anymore. Buffalo is so much worse without Milano, so the Cardinals should have an easy time moving the ball.

If all of this hasn’t convinced you to bet the Cardinals yet, I must remind you that the Bills play in just four days against the Dolphins. There’s no way they’ll be fully focused against a non-conference foe with a much more important game on the line.

This is my top play of the week. I love the Cardinals and will be betting at least five units on them. I’m considering this as my September NFL Pick of the Month, but will wait on the injury report for that.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s a bit shocking to me that the line, which has fallen from +7 to +6, popped back up to +6.5. I’m happy to get a better number, but I thought the sharps would continue to drag down this spread. Perhaps it has to do with Curtis Samuel being a full participant in Wednesday’s practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are no injuries of note, so the Cardinals will be my September NFL Pick of the Month. This reminds me of last year’s Vikings-Buccaneers game where Minnesota, a declining team favored by this amount of points, had an impending Thursday game against a tougher foe and completely looked past Tampa.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting James Conner 69.5 rushing and receiving yards. With Kyler Murray on the field last year, Conner eclipsed that total in six of his eight games. Buffalo will struggle to stop Conner without Matt Milano. The best number is over 69.5 -115 at FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was a +7 -110 at Bovada last night, but I didn’t lock in the pick there because Bovada is a shady sportsbook that doesn’t always pay out its customers. I was hoping for another book to have +7 -110, but I can’t find one right now. The best line is +6.5 -105 at DraftKings. The sharps had Arizona +7 long ago and Buffalo -6 more recently, but haven’t touched the game at +6.5. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The Bills play against the Dolphins this upcoming Thursday.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Bills -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Decent action on the Cardinals.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 68% (142,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bills -7.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 56 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.