2024 NFL Picks – Week 1: Ravens at Chiefs

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

Football is back! I couldn’t be more excited, especially when having the chance to redeem myself for the poor 2023 season that we had. Last year was mired with insane bad beats – like Mac Jones taking a safety on the final play of the game – but I did an audit of my picks during the summer and found that I was making stupid decisions at times as well. I’ve taken measures to potentially correct these dumb mistakes, so hopefully they are minimized this year.

Also, if you haven’t visited the site in a while, you may have noticed the new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

At any rate, I’m looking forward to this season. I’ve done a lot of research this summer to refine my handicapping. We’re coming off a great year, and I think this season could be even better!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes is coming off his worst statistical season as a starter, but there’s reason to believe that he’ll revert to his pre-2023 form. This is because the Chiefs finally upgraded his receiving corps after losing Tyreek Hill ahead of the 2022 season. Marquise Brown won’t be available due to injury, but Xavier Worthy will be. He projects to be the potent downfield threat Kansas City has been missing since Hill departed. Rashee Rice, meanwhile, hasn’t been suspended yet, so he’ll improve with experience and serve as a reliable target over the middle of the field.

This is not good news for the Ravens, who don’t have the best cornerback play. They were able to make up for that last year with a strong pass rush, particularly in the interior with Justin Madubuike, but Kansas City has a stellar interior blocking unit that can keep Mahomes clean.

The Ravens will at least be able to clamp down on the run. They were third in that regard last year, so Isiah Pacheco won’t do much damage on the ground.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I mentioned that the Chiefs have a fantastic interior offensive line, but the same can’t be said of Baltimore’s blocking group. The Ravens lost three starting offensive linemen from a year ago. This could be very difficult for them to overcome unless their replacements do a stellar job immediately.

The Chiefs, for this reason, have a great matchup. They have a superb pass rush with Chris Jones, George Karlaftis and others, so they’ll be able to hound Lamar Jackson and force him into mistakes. Jackson didn’t even play well versus Kansas City the last time he saw them, and now he’ll be tasked with avenging that loss with diminished blocking.

The way to attack Kansas City’s defense is to pound the ball right into them, which was the thought process behind the Derrick Henry signing. However, Henry is not nearly the same, dominant back he once was. It also remains to be seen if he’ll have much running room behind a makeshift offensive line.

RECAP: I love betting Mahomes when he’s motivated. I recall one game he had against the Jets a few years ago when the Jets were truly awful. During a mid-week press conference, Mahomes told reporters that he was truly shocked that New York didn’t draft him. He was visibly upset about it, and when I saw that, I thought, “Oh man, Mahomes is going to nuke this team.” And that’s what he did. He threw for five touchdowns against the Jets and didn’t even play the full game because it was a massacre.

Mahomes will be similarly amped up for this game. Despite being a three-time Super Bowl MVP, Mahomes was not voted as the best quarterback in the NFL on the NFL top 100 list this summer. As it so happens, he’ll be going against the quarterback in front of him.

Mahomes is going to light up the Ravens with his enhanced receiving corps. Meanwhile, the defensive line should do its job against a Baltimore front missing three starters.

This looks like an outstanding matchup for the Chiefs, and I’m excited to bet on them, especially knowing that the public is coming in heavily on the underdog.

Our Week 1 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m still planning on betting four units on the Chiefs, but I’m hoping a viable -2.5 line becomes available. The best spread I see now is -3 +100 at Bet365.

PLAYER PROPS: Rashee Rice over 5.5 receptions is my favorite prop for this game. In Rice’s final 10 games last year, when the Chiefs fully recognized how good he was, he logged six-plus catches in eight games. Baltimore’s secondary isn’t very good, so Rice should have a great game. The best number is over 5.5 -138 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m going to add Lamar Jackson 50+ rushing yards, Derrick Henry under 65.5 rushing yards, and Isaiah Likely over 15.5 receiving yards to the Rice prop. Baltimore’s offensive line is weak, so Jackson will have to run more, which he tends to do in big games anyway. This will also negatively impact Henry, who is washed up. Meanwhile, John Harbaugh said that Likely will be more involved offensively this year. This $25 parlay pays $221.49. I made it on FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

LOCKED IN: I was waiting for a viable Chiefs -2.5 line all week, and we finally found one. You can get Kansas City -2.5 -109 at Bookmaker. I’m locking it in for four units. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a bit of sharp money on the Chiefs, but not a substantial amount. I still love the Chiefs in this spot, as they have the motivation and matchups in their favor. The best line is -2.5 -110 at Bovada, followed by -2.5 -113 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes will be motivated after being voted behind Lamar Jackson.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Chiefs -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

The Ravens are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 71% (168,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

John Harbaugh is 12-4 ATS in Week 1 games.

Lamar Jackson is 11-1 ATS as an underdog.

Chiefs are 21-12 ATS in season openers at home since 1971.

Andy Reid is 7-4 ATS in Week 1 games with the Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 84-24 SU, 59-48 ATS (47-35 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 84 degrees. Light wind.