2024 NFL Picks – Week 1: Raiders at Chargers

The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: I’m posting this pick early – this is being written on Aug. 5 – because of the injury that Justin Herbert suffered in training camp. Herbert has a plantar fascia injury that will keep him out of action for a few weeks. He could return for this game, but it’s likely that he will be hindered if he does. In fact, a sports injury medical doctor suggested that Herbert will be bothered by the injury all year.

I wanted to post this pick just in case there is pessimism regarding Herbert’s injury. If Herbert were to be ruled out, the Raiders would move to -2.5 or -3, so I wanted to lock in the +3. Herbert’s backup, Easton Stick, isn’t good enough to combat Las Vegas’ elite defense. The Raiders were seventh in defensive EPA last year, and they added Christian Wilkins this offseason. Wilkins, Maxx Crosby and the rest of the defensive front will have a big advantage against the Chargers offensive line. Ra’shawn Slater is an excellent left tackle, but he had two of his worst performances of 2023 against Crosby, and that was without Wilkins creating mayhem in the interior. This pressure will be too much for Stick to handle.

If Herbert ends up playing, there’s no guarantee he’ll be 100 percent. Again, the medical expert said that Herbert won’t be completely healthy all year, so it will be difficult for an immobile Herbert to combat the Raiders and their great pass rush, especially with a new receiving corps. The Chargers will want to run the ball to keep Herbert/Stick safe, but the Raiders were second versus the rush last year.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders don’t have the best quarterback situation, but they at least have some stability entering this season. A year ago, they started the year with Jimmy Garoppolo, who wasn’t healthy. Aidan O’Connell took over in the middle of the season. He had some nice performances, but was inconsistent. This was expected, given that he was a rookie.

O’Connell now has experience, though it remains to be seen if he or Gardner Minshew will be the starting quarterback. Minshew nearly led the Colts to the playoffs last year, and now he’ll be operating with a talented trio of receivers in Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Brock Bowers. The Chargers have some dubious starters in their secondary and linebacking corps, so they’ll have trouble defending these skill players.

The one edge the Chargers may have is in regard to their pass rush, as Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa return for another season. It must be noted, however, that unlike Slater, Kolton Miller was outstanding in this matchup last year, so he can keep one of the Charger edge rushers at bay. The Raiders have some young blockers, but I don’t trust them to keep the other Charger edge rusher out of the backfield.

RECAP: I’m locking in the Raiders +3 -105 (available at FanDuel) for four units. As stated, if Herbert is eventually ruled out, the Raiders will be favored in a great matchup for them. And if Herbert plays, it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be 100 percent.

Frankly, I’m shocked this line is still on the board. Bovada has taken this game down, and some other sportsbooks may follow suit at the first sign of pessimism from Herbert. That may not happen, but I wanted to get this number before it goes away.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Justin Herbert has been cleared to play, so there goes my gambit of submitting my pick early did not pan out. That’s fine though, as I still don’t expect Herbert to be 100 percent.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s one major injury heading into this game, and that would be Malcolm Koonce being out. That’s not ideal, but I still like the Raiders against a hobbled Justin Herbert.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I hate all the public money coming in on the Raiders. I’d probably downgrade them to three units if I had to, but I can’t. I still like them quite a bit though.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It seems as though there’s at least a little bit of sharp money on the Raiders, with the vig rising to between -115 and -120, depending on the sportsbook. You can still get +3 -115 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Chargers -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Late public action on the Raiders is a concern.

Percentage of money on Las Vegas: 78% (114,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Chargers are 20-30 ATS in San Angeles.

Justin Herbert is 11-17 ATS as a favorite of -3 or more.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.