2024 NFL Picks – Week 1: Jets at 49ers

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Francisco, home of the gays and the LBGSTQX+ people. Tonight, the New York Jets take on the San Francisco Giants. Guys, it’s a new year, and I must voice my frustration. I wanted to go to Brazil to do the Packers-Eagles game, but Mother wouldn’t sign my permission slip to go overseas. I told her I had plenty of experience with Brazilians because I sometimes play Street Fighter II, and when I do, I play as Blanka. But Mother still said it was too dangerous for her little Poopy-kins because a Brazilian girl might ask me out on a date. Guys, is this ridiculous, or what? All I wanted to do is broadcast a game for my Philadelphia Eagles and root for them to crush the other team!

Emmitt: Thanks, Robert. I was real frustration with Street Fighter 2. Longed ago when Street Fighter II a real popularity game, I try to buy him when I goed to the store. But they not sell Street Fighter 2. The store have alternative game call Street Fighter II, with the alphabet I instead of the number 2, so I get real madness and go home and protest the game. I still not gonna play Street Fighter II until the store comed out with Street Fighter 2!

Reilly: Emmitt, if you think that’s rough, Mother made me vacuum the house before I could buy that game. She also made me clean the windows. What am I, some kind of maid!? As a then-40-year-old, I wanted to play video games and then admire my Eagles bobblehead collection in peace!

Tollefson: Reilly, you are pathetic. You need to stand up to the toxic matriarchy by kidnapping and enslaving women. Then, they can vacuum your floor and clean your windows as you do fun stuff.

Reilly: Tolly, how many times do I have to tell you this? I would kidnap and enslave women if Mother would let me talk to girls. She said I could talk to singers last year because she made a bet that I could have a prettier girlfriend than Taylor Swift, but I just ended up taking Mother to prom. Mother let me hold her hand for a bit. Now, I’m back to not talking to women except for two exceptions Mother made because we’re going to have a guest woman on the show in addition to Charissa Thompson. Mother said I can talk to them if I wear a mask and gloves. Also, I was supposed to go on a date to see a picture show with Charissa Thompson, but Mother said we both needed masks and gloves, and Charissa declined, but I think Mother may have threatened her life.

Tollefson: Speaking of masks and gloves, I like to wear those when I kidnap women so I don’t leave any fingerprints or DNA.

Reilly: You’re really rubbing it in there, Tolly. When I get my revenge on everyone, you can bet that you’ll be on the list! But now it’s time to go down to Charissa Thompson for this pre-game report. Charissa, what do you have for us in your pre-game report?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Peter. Tonight, Jets quarterback Joe Namath is set to come back after spending decades retired from football. And for the 49ers, it’s the debut of Jerry Rice, who is also returning to the league after a long hiatus. Back to you.

Reilly: Charissa, I don’t think that’s correct, but to be honest, I haven’t looked at either team’s roster because I’m more concerned about not broadcasting games for my Philadelphia Eagles. Guys, I’m really mad about this, so I’m going to turn it to our new analyst, Kamala Harris, who is running to be our president. Kamala, now that I have my mask and gloves on, let me ask you, who do you think will win the Super Bowl this year? And keep in mind if you don’t say my Philadelphia Eagles, you’ll be put on my hit list.

Kamala Harris: That’s a great term. The Super Bowl. It’s super, because the game is super, because it’s the most important game, which makes it super. And bowl. You could say it’s played in a bowl because the stadium looks like a bowl, but football games are called bowls as well. This makes it a Super Bowl because it’s a super bowl, as in it’s a bowl that is super, which makes it a Super Bowl.

Reilly: That’s great information, but who do you think is going to win the Super Bowl?

Kamala Harris: Now, there’s a great concept. And it’s a concept that’s great, which makes it a great concept. Winning. When you win, you win, and if you don’t win, you don’t win. You lose. Which is not winning. And when you don’t win, you lose, and when you don’t lose, you win. So winning the Super Bowl is winning, and not losing, the bowl that is super, which is a Super Bowl, and winning it means you haven’t lost the Super Bowl. Because when you lose the Super Bowl, you don’t win.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Indian Kamala is just talking in circles, and believe me, no one knows more about circles than I do, Pi is 3.14, did you know that, because Kamala probably thinks Pi is something you eat, but Pi is an irrational number, and Kamara is really irrational, probably the most irrational person anyone has ever met, and I’ll tell you who’s going to win the Super Bowl, we’re going to win the Super Bowl, not just me, but the American people, because when Donald Trump wins, frankly, the American people win, but the news media won’t tell you that, it’s all fake news, all of it, the fake news believes that Kamala – how do you say that name, anyway, because she always changes how she says it – Kamala is black, according to the fake news media, but her photographs say she’s Indian, unlike Elizabeth Warren, who I call Pocahontas, she’s not Indian, but Kamala is the real Indian, frankly, and she’s bad for America, real bad, but we’re great for America, the best for America.

Wolfley: DONALD, I HAVE COME FROM THE FUTURE, AND I HAVE LEARNED THAT PI WILL WIN THE SUPER BOWL THIS SEASON.

Reilly: Shut up, Wolfley, or you’ll be next! You know what? You will be next! New Daddy, I named you Czar of the Revenge White Board. Fetch it for me, now!

Jay Cutler: Oh, when you said “white board,” I thought you meant that I’d be bored listening to you, which is true.

Reilly: New Daddy, how can you possibly say that!? No one can possibly be bored talking to me!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about things that are boring, Kevin. Let’s begin with Kevin, Kevin. Kevin, Kevin, is very boring, Kevin. Let’s talk about other things that are boring, Kevin. There’s a lecture in school, Kevin, which is less boring than Kevin, Kevin. Also, soccer, Kevin, which is also more boring than Kevin, Kevin. Don’t forget about watching paint dry, Kevin, which is more fun than Kevin, Kevin. And also-.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, YOU’RE NEXT ON MY LIST AS SOON AS MY WHITE BOARD CZAR GETS HIS ACT TOGETHER! We’ll be back after this!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: There’s one major unknown factor heading into Tuesday, and that was Trent Williams’ availability. The All-Pro left tackle was holding out, and it was looking less and less likely that he’d be available Monday night.

Williams, however, agreed to an extension, so he will play in this game. That has to be a huge relief for the 49ers because his absence presented a big problem against the Jets’ excellent defensive front. New York is stellar at rushing the passer, so a blocking unit without Williams would struggle to keep Brock Purdy protected. Furthermore, New York’s excellent cornerbacks will be able to lock down Purdy’s receivers. With Williams on the field, Purdy will be able to have enough time to connect with his targets.

The Jets are much weaker to the run than the pass, which ordinarily wouldn’t bode well against Christian McCaffrey. Williams’ presence will play a huge factor here as well. It’s hard to imagine McCaffrey having lots of success without Williams, especially considering that McCaffrey may not be 100 percent coming off a balky calf. Williams being on the field will allow McCaffrey to burst through wide-open running lanes.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets’ offensive line was a massive problem last year, but the front office took measures to make sure that Aaron Rodgers would last more than four plays this time. New York has its own talented left tackle now in Tyron Smith, who will be essential in keeping Nick Bosa at bay.

Rodgers should have ample time in the backfield, so he’ll be able to connect with Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams on occasion. The 49ers aren’t overly strong at cornerback, so Wilson should have a decent performance.

The Jets figure to move the chains well with Breece Hall, too. Hall is now two years removed from a torn ACL, so he’ll be at 100-percent capacity. He’s able to go the distance any time he touches the ball, and the 49ers are missing some front-seven talent from a year ago.

RECAP: This isn’t the best spot for the Jets. Any East Coast team playing a night game on the West Coast is going to be in trouble because of Circadian rhythms. Also, the Jets’ defensive weakness is against the run, and that’s what the 49ers do best.

The 49ers do this best when Williams is in the lineup. If Williams couldn’t play, the 49ers would have major problems blocking the Jets’ ferocious front, as their offensive line will be graded as one of the NFL’s worst.

My pick was going to be dictated by Williams’ availability. I would have sided with the Jets had Williams been sidelined, but given that he’ll be available, I’m going to pick San Francisco.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some -4.5s are beginning to appear, which makes sense, given the Trent Williams news.

SATURDAY NOTES: It doesn’t appear as though we’re waiting on any injury news. I may bet a small amount on the 49ers.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The 49ers won’t have Talanoa Hufanga, which is a big loss because of other players who aren’t there from last year (Arik Armstead, Dre Greenlaw). I don’t think I’ll be betting the 49ers after all.

MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: This is a tough game to handicap. On one side, the 49ers are banged up, and Super Bowl losers have had a horrible history in Week 1. On the other side, the Jets’ poor run defense is in a poor matchup, and it’s unclear how Aaron Rodgers will perform off injury. Plus, circadian rhythms are involved. I won’t be betting this game, barring a surprise inactive, but I will be posting a same-game parlay soon.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m going with Breece Hall over 27.5 receiving yards, Jauan Jennings under 18.5 receiving yards, Mike Williams under 26.5 receiving yards, and Brandon Aiyuk under 50.5 receiving yards. Hall topped 27.5 receiving yards in eight of his 12 games last year after he was “unshackled.” Given that he can go the distance any time he touches the ball, I’d say this is a good bet. I’m going to wager on it individually as well. The best number is over 27.5 -110 at FanDuel. At any rate, Jennings, Williams and Aiyuk are all not 100 percent. Jennings was on the injury report; Williams is coming off a torn ACL; and Aiyuk will be eased into action after his holdout. Aiyuk also has to deal with Sauce Gardner. This $25 parlay pays $257.10. I made it on FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Christian McCaffrey is out. I was hoping to get the 49ers -3 as a result, but the line only moved half a point to -3.5. The best line I found is -3.5 -105 at BetMGM. I assume that the sportsbook fear too much sharp money on San Francisco at -3, but there’s no pro money to be found at -3.5. The public, meanwhile, is on the Jets. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: 49ers -7.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

The Jets are a public dog.

Percentage of money on New York: 76% (90,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Aaron Rodgers is 128-88 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 30-19 ATS as an underdog.

49ers are 42-32 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.

Brock Purdy is 20-4 SU, 14-10 ATS.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Sunny, 77 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.