2024 NFL Picks – Week 1: Vikings at Giants

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Contest Announcement time!

Our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

Also, our Survivor Contest has returned as well. It’s free to enter, and you can win $350!

If you’re looking for the best DFS content on the Web, sign up for Stokastic for the greatest projections and ownership data. Sign up with this link or use promo code WALTERFOOTBALL for 25% off!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The poor Viking fans were so excited to showcase J.J. McCarthy this year. There’s no guarantee that he would have been called on to start this game, but he was impressive at times during the preseason. McCarthy, unfortunately, is out for the year, so Minnesota fans will have to wait 12 months to see him in real action.

Sam “Don’t call me Bradford” Darnold will start, which is far from ideal. Luckily for Darnold, he’ll have two talented receivers at his disposal against a New York defense that possesses some terrible cornerback play. Perhaps Adoree Jackson will help, but he looked decrepit last season. It’s hard to imagine him slowing down Justin Jefferson anyway.

It’s a shame that the Giants have such a poor secondary because the rest of their defense looks stout, particularly their front. They’ll have Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux rushing the passer from the edge with Dexter Lawrence disrupting in the middle. Darnold normally would have a solid offensive line in front of him, but guard Dalton Risner is sidelined, so a shaky interior could have some major problems against Lawrence, both in pass protection and run blocking.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Daniel Jones is one of many quarterbacks coming off a serious injury. He’s recovering from a torn ACL, so he may not be as mobile as usual. This will be a problem against teams with terrific pass rushes.

I wouldn’t qualify the Vikings as such, at least not yet. They lost some major edge talent this offseason. They spent a first-round pick on Dallas Turner, but it remains to be seen how he’ll produce in his first game. This is great news for Jones, who is still burdened with a poor blocking group.

Jones will at least have a dynamic receiver at his disposal for the first time in his career. Malik Nabers is a great talent and should be able to get open rather easily against Minnesota’s poor secondary.

RECAP: The opposite of fading the overhyped team heading into Week 1 is to buy low on the squad that is being trashed during the start of the year. That team would be the Giants, who have been the butt of almost every NFL joke ever since Jones had a horrific showing in the preseason.

It’s easy to forget that the Giants were a playoff team in 2022. I’m not saying they’ll reach the postseason again, but the Giants have some things going for them, namely some stellar talents in their front seven who could give Darnold some issues.

Speaking of Darnold, he’s quarterbacking a team that’s not very good, yet is favored on the road and is being bet on by the public. I don’t understand how it’s warranted for Darnold to be a publicly backed road favorite over anyone, even the stinky Giants.

I’ll be going the contrarian route and backing New York. This won’t be a big play, but I think the Giants are worth some sort of a wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is still a small bet on the Giants. I was hoping to see some sharp money come in on New York, but the pros haven’t weighed in on this game yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: I may go to two units on the Giants. There’s really no reason the Vikings should be favored on the road. Also, the Giants don’t have a single player on the injury report.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a ton of public money coming in on the Vikings, though the sharps haven’t backed the Giants. If you want to bet the Giants, the best line is +1 -108 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Giants -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Vikings -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Lots of action on the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 70% (137,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Sunny, 68 degrees. Light wind.