2024 NFL Picks – Week 1: Patriots at Bengals

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

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NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I discussed how bad New Orleans’ offensive line could be in the previous picks capsule. As atrocious as the Saints’ blocking could be, New England’s might actually be worse. The Patriots’ offensive line is in complete shambles. It couldn’t block the Redskins’ second-string unit during the final preseason game, with the group even committing eight penalties in the first half alone. It was so bad that the official announced, “Illegal formation, once again, on the offense.”

If the Patriots still had Bill Belichick as their head coach, I’d have some faith that they could fix their issues. Jerod Mayo, however, is a brand new coach, and a defensive one at that. New England likely won’t be able to block at all in the early stages of the season – or perhaps even the entire year – which will be a huge problem against Cincinnati’s talented pass rush.

Even worse, the Patriots’ receiving corps is not good enough to compensate for this woeful blocking. The Bengals don’t have a very good secondary, but New England doesn’t have the personnel to take advantage of this liability.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: There are question marks about Cincinnati’s receiving corps as well. The primary question is radically different than New England’s, however, as it pertains to the availability to Ja’Marr Chase, who remains unsigned.

This game, however, doesn’t appear to be one in which Chase will be completely necessary. The Patriots had a great defense last year, but that was with Belichick coaching up the unit. Now, Belichick is gone, and so is Matthew Judon. Top interior lineman, Christian Barmore, is out as well. Joe Burrow, who often deals with pass-rushing issues, won’t feel much pressure from New England’s diminished pass rush. Burrow is great enough to navigate through this matchup without Chase.

RECAP: Early in the offseason, I believed I was going to side with the Patriots. The Bengals habitually have gotten off to slow starts in the Burrow era, losing to the Steelers as seven-point favorites a couple of years ago. They were also destroyed last year at Cleveland, though Burrow could barely moved because of an injured calf.

I wonder if the Bengals have taken notice of this and will attempt to get off to a quicker start. That’s not the whole reason why I’ve decided to switch to Cincinnati, but that’s part of it.

There are two factors for why the Bengals appear to be the right side. First, is the rookie coach-rookie quarterback combo, which has a poor track record in Week 1. Brissett isn’t technically a rookie, but it’s his first start in New England for quite a long time. He’s not used to his teammates yet, so there’s bound to be some growing pains in the first week. All it takes is for one miscommunication, and Cincinnati will be taking an interception back to the house. And Mayo isn’t experienced enough to guide Brissett through these issues.

The second factor is that the Patriots have a woeful offensive line that won’t be capable of blocking anyone. The Bengals have a stellar pass rush, so they’ll be able to hound Brissett and disrupt anything New England attempts offensively.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ja’Marr Chase practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday. If there’s news that he’ll play, this spread could balloon to -10, so I may lock this pick in soon.

SATURDAY NOTES: We had some bad news for the Bengals, with Tee Higgins listed as doubtful. I have no plan on betting them if Ja’Marr Chase is also out. Fortunately, Chase practiced fully on Friday, so we just need some faith that ownership will pay Chase what he’s deserved.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Chase is on the case! Sorry, I have a 2-year-old who is obsessed with Paw Patrol. Ja’Marr Chase is active, so my three-unit bet will stand. There’s no sharp action to speak of in this game. The best line is -7.5 -110 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Patriots.

The Bengals play against the Chiefs next, but they may want to avoid another slow start.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -12.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Bengals -10.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

Growing action on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 70% (121,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Opening Line: Bengals -8.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Sunny, 68 degrees. Light wind.