2024 NFL Picks – Week 1: Steelers at Falcons

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some hate mail from last year:

Imagine liking soccer. That’s like saying, “I like watching paint dry.” What a sad existence.

Still waiting for a reply from CM about this.

I still can’t believe this guy believes that I make a living solely on placing bets. How stupid can you be?

Ah, our old friend John Capricotti. Hopefully he returns this season with more gems like this:

You heard it from John Capricotti. No need to shop around for the best line. Just take the worst number!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I don’t understand why the Steelers signed Russell Wilson. I imagine the front office simply didn’t watch Wilson in Denver. Perhaps there were ‘member berries involved from Wilson’s Seattle days. I don’t get it. Wilson was so atrocious with the Broncos that he was benched in favor of Jarrett Stidham.

Things will be even worse for Wilson in Pittsburgh because of the offensive line play. The Steelers have added some young blockers recently, but it’s hard to imagine that they’ll be great to start the season. The blocking wouldn’t have been a huge issue a few weeks ago because the Falcons looked to have a weak pass rush as a result of drafting Michael Penix Jr. over Laiatu Latu. However, Atlanta made amends by trading for Matthew Judon. He and Justin Simmons could transform Atlanta’s defense into a top-10 unit.

At the very least, the Falcons will be able to feast on dysfunctional offenses like Pittsburgh’s. The Steelers have just one potent downfield threat in George Pickens, so A.J. Terrell can take care of him. Where else will Wilson turn? This doesn’t seem like a very good situation.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I had questions about Kirk Cousins, particularly in the wake of the Penix pick. I thought it was possible that Cousins simply wasn’t 100 percent coming off a torn Achilles. He’s 36, after all, so it’s more difficult for older players like him to recover from such injuries.

Cousins, at the very least, will be well protected. Atlanta has a solid offensive line that will be able to keep Pittsburgh’s pass rush at bay enough for Cousins to have some success. Sure, T.J. Watt will make some big plays, but it’s not like he and the other front-seven players have great matchups.

Speaking of matchups, Drake London has the best one against a shaky Steeler secondary. The Steelers were at least able to sign Patrick Queen to limit Kyle Pitts, but stopping London will be a problem.

RECAP: Something I like to do in Week 1 is fade the overhyped teams heading into the season. I believed there were two of these squads, with the Falcons being one of them. I was wary of Atlanta’s ability to meet expectations because of a sketchy defense that lost Calais Campbell. Passing on Latu seemed like a huge mistake.

However, the Falcons made a couple of moves to justify their hype. Acquiring Judon and Simmons was huge, as the duo gives Atlanta a viable stop unit. Thus, the Falcons no longer qualify as one of these overhyped fades.

In fact, I’ll be picking Atlanta. I know that fading Mike Tomlin as an underdog is risky business, but as long as the line isn’t above -3, I’m fine with it. Besides, going against Wilson and a bad offensive line seems awfully tempting.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Our new picks podcast co-host Eytan Shander made a great point about why the Steelers might be the right side in this game on our Week 1 NFL Picks video. I really don’t want anything to do with Russell Wilson, but then again, there’s something to be said about Arthur Smith having knowledge about his former team.

SATURDAY NOTES: Russell Wilson probably won’t play in this game, so that’s one concern I won’t have for the Steelers. Despite the positive news, the Steelers are now +3.5, making them appealing. I thought about changing my pick, but I’ll remain with Atlanta.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Justin Fields will start, which is bullish for the Steelers. Had an injured Russell Wilson got the nod, I would have bet the Falcons, but there’s no great wagering opportunity now in my opinion, though the sharps have been pounding Atlanta. The best line is -4 -105 at FanDuel.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Falcons -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

The Steelers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 88% (135,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Mike Tomlin is 58-34 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.