2024 NFL Picks – Week 1: Rams at Lions

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions fought the Rams in the opening round of the playoffs last year in a tight battle. Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs may notice that a certain big presence is missing in the rematch. That would obviously be Aaron Donald, who announced his retirement this offseason.

Donald’s absence is a huge blow to the Rams’ chances of pulling the upset. Goff is protected by one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, so someone like Donald is needed to disrupt Goff. With Donald gone, the Rams don’t have anyone like that despite spending two early draft choices on front-seven players.

While the Rams have grown weaker on the defensive line, they were at least able to make some nice additions to their secondary. Goff, however, will have too much time to be frazzled, and he’ll have plenty of success targeting Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Kyren Williams has his work cut out for him in this matchup. The Lions already had the league’s best run defense last year, and now they’ll be even more potent in that regard with D.J. Reader in the middle of the line of scrimmage.

The Lions were much weaker against the pass last year, which was how Matthew Stafford was able to nearly defeat his old team. What Detroit did last season was stack the line of scrimmage to be able to stuff the run, which created an issue versus aerial attacks. Reader being on the team allows the Lions not to play closely to the line of scrimmage. Combine that with the improved defensive backs acquired this offseason, and the Lions look to be much better against the pass.

Still, stopping Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua can be challenging for most teams when Stafford is well protected. The thing is, however, Stafford won’t have his entire offensive line in front of him, as left tackle Alaric Jackson was suspended. Joe Noteboom is going to have a very difficult time against Aidan Hutchinson.

RECAP: The injury report will be worth monitoring leading up to this game. The Rams were very banged up during training camp, so we’ll have to see who’s missing on top of Alaric Jackson and Tyler Higbee.

I initially planned on siding with the Rams at +3.5 because getting the hook seemed appealing with a team seeking revenge in an even matchup. However, given the injury issues, I may end up with the Lions. I’m going to pencil in Detroit for now, but stay tuned for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ll have interest in betting the Lions at -3, but I’m fearful of a back-door cover at -3.5, given that Matthew Stafford has a tendency to go nuclear in second halves when he’s down. There’s sharp money coming in on Detroit.

SATURDAY NOTES: I like the Lions more now that the spread has moved to -4 as a result of the Rams missing Darious Williams. Part of the reason I was still bullish on the Rams following Aaron Donald’s retirement was because of the great moves the Rams made to strengthen their secondary. Williams was my favorite cornerback addition, but he’s now on injured reserve. I don’t need to tell you that this is a horrible thing against Detroit’s passing attack. I’m going to bet a couple of units on the Lions.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m going to parlay Matthew Stafford over 273.5 passing yards, David Montgomery 57.5 rushing yards, Puka Nacua over 73.5 receiving yards, and Kyren Williams over 2.5 receptions. This parlay will correlate with a Lions win over the Rams. Montgomery routinely went over that number last year, especially in wins. Meanwhile, Stafford eclipsed 273.5 passing yards in all but two losses, including the playoff contest versus Detroit. Stafford will target Nacua a lot, and he may have to check the ball down to Williams more than he’d like because of the offensive line issues. This $25 parlay pays $215.93. I made it on FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: D.J. Reader won’t play in this game, which is a bummer. I may downgrade this pick to one unit. I’ll have final thoughts around 7:45 Eastern.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Reader is out, as expected, but another big injury is that the Rams won’t have Rob Havenstein. We saw how the Browns looked without their two tackles, so the Rams could have similar issues. I’m going to bet two units on the Lions. The best line is -5 -109 at Bookmaker. The sharps are on Detroit. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Lions -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

The Rams are a public underdog.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 57% (234,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Sean McVay is 6-1 ATS in Week 1 games.

Opening Line: Lions by 3.5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Dome.