2024 NFL Picks – Week 1: Packers at Eagles

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles already had an explosive offense last year. It’s scary to imagine how potent they’ll be with an actual backfield threat on the team in Saquon Barkley.

Barkley presents a huge problem for the Packers. Green Bay is habitually poor against the run, ranking 24th in that regard last year. D’Andre Swift wouldn’t have threatened Green Bay as much if this matchup transpired a year ago, but Barkley is a completely different animal. He’ll be running behind a great offensive line for the first time in his career, so I would expect a huge game from him.

The Packers can’t exactly focus on clamping down on Barkley because they have to worry about all of Philadelphia’s dynamic receiving threats. In years past, they could have limited A.J. Brown with Jaire Alexander, but Alexander’s career is on a sharp, downward trajectory because of all the injuries he’s suffered over the years. Brown and DeVonta Smith will feast on Green Bay’s weak secondary.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Speaking of weak secondaries, the Eagles couldn’t stop any passing attack last season. They made Sam Howell look like the second coming of Joe Montana in two meetings. It was a complete disaster that caused Philadelphia to unravel after a 10-1 start.

The Eagles have taken measures to improve their secondary, signing Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and drafting two defensive backs in the first couple of rounds. Devin White being added to the linebacking corps was a nice addition as well. It remains to be seen, however, how these rookie defenders will play, especially against “No Cookie” Jordan Love and his improving receiving corps.

One area in which Philadelphia should excel is limiting Josh Jacobs. The former Raider is one of my favorites to win the rushing title this year – see my NFL Futures Bets page for more – but this is an extremely difficult matchup, as Philadelphia’s young defensive tackles clamped down on the run in 2023.

RECAP: This line seems to be priced close to what the spread should be. Both of these teams are in the upper echelon of the NFC. I like the Eagles better than the Packers, but there’s not a huge difference between the two. However, Philadelphia seems to match up well versus Green Bay, particularly with Barkley now on the team.

If you’re looking for another angle here, it might be to fade Matt LaFleur in an international game. The last time LaFleur played outside the United States, he missed his own meeting and then lashed out about not being able to adjust his body clock. Granted, Brazil is in an Atlantic time zone, so there’s only a 2-hour difference from LaFleur’s central time, but traveling so far could impact him in ways most may not realize.

I’m going to side with the Eagles for this reason. I’m not sure if I’ll end up betting this game, but if I do, it’ll be for a small wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a major dichotomy pertaining to public money and sharp money in this game. The public is pounding the Packers, while the sharps love the Eagles. It’s not ideal for Philadelphia that Devin White has been ruled out, but I’m still siding with the “home team.”

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting Jayden Reed over 3.5 receptions. In his final 10 games last year, Reed caught four or more balls nine times. The only exception was the opening-round playoff game against Dallas when the Packers got out to a huge lead and didn’t need to throw at all in the second half. The best number is over 3.5 -120 at BetMGM. You can Get $158 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m placing Reed over 3.5 receptions with A.J. Brown over 70.5 receiving yards, Christian Watson over 41.5 receiving yards, and Josh Jacobs under 62.5 rushing yards. Brown has a great schematic matchup, and Jaire Alexander is no longer a threat to receivers. Watson is healthy and should have his way with Philadelphia’s secondary. And I expect the Eagles to win, so the Packers may not be able to run very much. Also, Philadelphia was stout versus the run last year until late in the season when the young defensive tackles wore down. This $25 parlay pays $220.25. I made it on FanDuel. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still like the Eagles, especially with the news that the Packers were a 2-hour drive from the stadium. That’s not a huge deal, but every little bit helps. At any rate, the sharps were on the Eagles earlier in the week, but some late, pro money came in on Green Bay, knocking this line down to -1.5 at some locations. The best line is -1.5 -105 at Caesars.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Eagles -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

The Packers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 68% (62,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Matt LaFleur is 49-34 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Eagles -1.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 63 degrees. Light wind.