2024 NFL Picks – Week 1: Panthers at Saints

The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

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CAROLINA OFFENSE: I laugh whenever I see the Panthers near the bottom of anyone’s power rankings. “Way to not pay attention to anything that happened this offseason,” I think to myself. Carolina won’t necessarily be a playoff team this year, but it’ll be competitive and could push for a record close to .500.

The Panthers have done a lot to improve this side of the ball. They bolstered their offensive line with Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, addressing a poor interior that couldn’t keep Bryce Young clean at all. Hunt and Lewis will help open up running lanes for Chuba Hubbard, who otherwise wouldn’t have had a chance against last year’s eighth-ranked ground defense.

The front office also acquired some talented receivers who could separate for Young. And speaking of Young, he’ll be coached up well by quarterback guru Dave Canales, who revived the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield the past two years. He can certainly do the same for Young, placing the young quarterback in favorable situations in this game.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: While the Panthers will have a much better offensive line, the Saints’ blocking will be far worse. Losing Ryan Ramczyk was a huge blow because he was easily the best blocker on the roster. The Saints used a first-round pick on Tallies Fuaga, but it remains to be seen how he’ll fare in his first game.

The Saints will struggle to block most teams this year, including the Panthers. Alvin Kamara won’t find any running room, while Derek Carr will have to settle for lots of checkdowns. Kamara will at least be somewhat productive as a receiver out of the backfield, but Carolina has a talented linebacking corps to limit him.

On the rare occasions in which Carr can target players downfield, he’ll obviously look to Chris Olave, who is his only consistent receiver. Olave, however, will have a difficult matchup against Jaycee Horn.

RECAP: This line makes no sense to me. I have the Panthers as a better team than the Saints in my NFL Power Rankings, so why are they such big underdogs? This spread should be closer to New Orleans -1, so we’re getting insane value.

It seems as though the public just doesn’t understand how to evaluate these teams just yet. They still believe the Panthers are terrible, yet Carolina has made a number of big upgrades this offseason. New Orleans, meanwhile, is in shambles with his horrific offensive line. Any team as bad as the Saints almost has to be automatically faded when it’s favored by more than a field goal.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Something I didn’t note yet is that Dennis Allen is the worst coach in the NFL against the spread. He’s especially brutal as a favorite (7-15-1), which matches up with Derek Carr’s 9-19 ATS record as a favorite of 3.5 or more.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing has changed for me concerning this game. The Panthers continue to look great at +4.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting Alvin Kamara under 54.5 rushing yards. In his final eight games last year, Kamara eclipsed that sum three times, and yet, that was with a better offensive line in front of him. New Orleans now has the worst blocking unit in the NFL. The Panthers, meanwhile, signed Josey Jewell, so they should be better versus the rush. The best number is over 267.5 -113 at BetMGM. You can Get $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Unfortunately, all the +4s are gone. The sharps have dragged this line down to +3.5. The best line is +3.5 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Saints -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Sharp money on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 67% (132,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Derek Carr is 9-19 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+.

Opening Line: Saints -4.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Dome.