2024 NFL Picks – Week 1: Redskins at Buccaneers

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Jayden Daniels will be making his first NFL start. Ideally, he would have been granted an easier opponent, though it’s not the Tennessee juggernaut that Caleb Williams will be tasked with slaying. This statement may confuse you because the Buccaneers were very poor against aerial attacks last year, thanks to a diminished pass rush and a weak group of cornerbacks.

So, why is this an unfavorable matchup for Daniels? It’s because the Buccaneers tend to play very well against mobile quarterbacks, thanks to their speedy linebackers. Granted, Devin White is gone, so perhaps this won’t be the case anymore, but Lavonte David is still patrolling the middle of the field.

Daniels also won’t be able to rely much on Brian Robinson Jr. The Buccaneers tend to be better versus the run than the pass – and not just by default – so Robinson will have trouble finding running room in this game.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: While the Buccaneers lost a key linebacker this offseason, the Redskins were able to acquire a pair. It’s been a long time since the Redskins have possessed skilled linebackers – perhaps going back as far as the London Fletcher days – but things have changed now. Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu will provide stability at the position that Washington has lacked for quite a while.

The improved linebacker play, combined with the talent on the defensive line, should allow the Redskins to clamp down on the run rather well. Rachaad White was already a mediocre rusher, so he won’t get much against Washington’s linebackers.

Cornerback, however, is a different story. This has also been a big problem for the Redskins, but things have worsened with Kendall Fuller gone. It’s not a good thing to be weak at cornerback against the Buccaneers, who have a pair of talented receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The latter could be especially productive in this game.

RECAP: I noted earlier that the Patriots are one of two teams that have a rookie quarterback-rookie head coach combo in Week 1 this year, which is almost an automatic fade for me. The second is the Redskins. Granted, Dan Quinn isn’t a rookie head coach, but this will be his first season with the Redskins, so he’s still learning all the personnel and whatnot. There will be an adjustment period for him.

So, will I be betting the Buccaneers? No way. I have no interest in siding with them, given that they’re potentially a bottom-10 NFL team. I do like their receivers against the Redskin cornerbacks, but the rest of the team is so blah that I can’t stomach betting them as more than a field goal favorite over anyone. I’ll side with them for office pool purposes, but only because of Washington’s inexperience.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some sharp money has come in on the Redskins to drag this spread down to -3 -120 in some locations. I guess the professional bettors don’t have my new coach/new quarterback policy!

SATURDAY NOTES: This game might have the worst weather of the week, as forecasts are calling for heavy rain. This gives the team with the better running game more of an advantage. That would be the Redskins because of Jayden Daniels. However, I’m still not going to bet Washington because of the inexperience.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This is another public dog, so keep that in mind if you want to bet the Redskins. I will not be betting this game, barring some shocking inactive news.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned, there’s a lot of public money on the Redskins. The sharps haven’t weighed in on this game. If you like Washington, +4 -108 is the best line at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Lots of public money on the Redskins.

Percentage of money on Washington: 71% (60,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 133-92 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 40-71 ATS at home in the previous 109 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -4.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Rain, 87 degrees. Light wind.