2024 NFL Picks – Week 1: Texans at Colts

The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: It’s going to be exciting to watch the Texans this year. C.J. Stroud is coming off the best rookie quarterback season ever, and yet he’ll effectively have two new receivers at his disposal. Stefon Diggs was signed, while Tank Dell will be returning from an injury that caused him to miss the final portion of the 2023 season, including the two playoff games.

Stroud will have three dynamic downfield threats as well as Dalton Schultz at his disposal in this game. The Colts have a solid defense, particularly when it comes to stopping the run and pressuring the quarterback, but they are weak at outside cornerback, so containing both Nico Collins and Diggs will be a huge problem.

The Colts, at the very least, will be able to restrict Joe Mixon. Grover Stewart is one of the top run-stuffing linemen in the NFL, as he and DeForest Buckner form an amazing defensive tackle tandem. If Stroud still had a limited supporting cast, I’d be concerned about his ability to consistently move the chains, but he’ll be able to light up Indianapolis’ secondary.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts offense will look radically different this year as well. At least for the time being, anyway. This is because Anthony Richardson is actually healthy at the moment. Richardson, however, got hurt in every single game in which he played last season, so it remains to be seen if he’ll have better injury luck.

As long as Richardson is healthy, it’s going to be difficult for the opposition to stop the Colts because of all the dynamic threats the team has. Richardson has an amazing arm and can torch opposing defensive backs, and he’ll be able to run circles around defenders while scrambling as well. Then, there’s Jonathan Taylor, who will once again rush behind one of the top offensive lines in the NFL.

Of all these areas, it seems as though the Texans will struggle to limit Richardson on the ground the most. Richardson zipped right through Houston’s defense in Week 2 last year en route to a great rushing performance despite missing more than half the game with an injury. If he plays the entire contest, he could have an insane rushing total.

RECAP: I have no feel for this game. These are two underrated teams that both have a chance to reach the Super Bowl if they can remain healthy. I like the Texans more, so this spread is appropriately priced.

I’m ultimately going to side with the Texans. You know how Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes had/have winning spread records, and if you would have blindly bet them, you’d profit over the long term? I think we may see something similar with Stroud, who might be widely recognized as the third-best quarterback in the NFL by the time the season is finished. Stroud was 10-6 against the spread last year after adjusting to the NFL in his first two games, so we may see a similar winning clip until the oddsmakers adjust and begin inflating his lines.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a good amount of sharp action coming in on the Texans, which has bumped this line up to -3 in some locations. I would have no interest in switching to Indianapolis at +3, but +3.5 would be a different story.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing has changed for me regarding this game. Still a slight lean on Houston.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Texans up to -3, but haven’t touched them at that number. If you want to bet Houston, the best line is -3 -103 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Texans -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 54% (145,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -2.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.