2024 NFL Picks – Week 1: Cowboys at Browns

The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Return of Shameless Self Promotion, which are some chapters that didn’t make it into my new book.

DALLAS OFFENSE: It was shocking that the Cowboys opened as favorites in this matchup when the lines were first released. Somehow, people thought they were good enough to be expected to win in Cleveland despite losing two of their best offensive linemen this season, as Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz are now with the Jets and Redskins, respectively.

It’d be one thing if the Cowboys weren’t matched up against a great defense, but they’ll be battling the Browns, who had the league’s No. 1 stop unit last year. Myles Garrett and the rest of the defensive line will be able to swarm Dak Prescott. We’ve seen Prescott struggle mightily in the past when there are issues with his offensive line, so unless Smith and Biadasz’s replacements thrive right away, we could see that again.

The Cowboys also have no threat of a running game to ease pressure off Prescott. It’d be one thing if Tony Pollard were still on the roster, but he’s now in Tennessee. Neither Ezekiel Elliott nor Rico Dowdle is going to scare a Cleveland defense that was No. 2 versus ground attacks last year.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Cowboys have problems beyond their offensive line. Anyone who watched the Packers destroy them in the opening round of the playoffs understands this. While Dallas has no running game, it also can’t stop the rush either. The Cowboys looked utterly helpless when trying to tackle Aaron Jones.

Nick Chubb being healthy would be an enormous boon for the Browns in this matchup, but Jerome Ford has proven to be a quality replacement. Of course, it helps that the Browns have one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. Ford will have big running lanes against Dallas, making Deshaun Watson’s matchup easier.

Speaking of Watson, the massage enthusiast will have a chance to redeem himself from last year’s miserable season. He’ll have a better receiving corps and a healthier offensive line at his disposal, plus he won’t have to worry about last year’s breakout cornerback DaRon Bland, who is dealing with an injury right now.

RECAP: I wish I had bet the Browns when this spread was first released. The Cowboys were favored back in May, which seems so absurd. Not only are they the inferior team in this contest, but they also have one of the worst matchups of any team in Week 1, with their new offensive line battling Garrett and company.

The Browns are the play for at least a few units. They’re the better team, yet aren’t even favored by a field goal. I know that betting on Watson isn’t very appealing, but neither is doing so with Prescott when he’s being pressured heavily. Besides, if you go position by position, you’ll come to the conclusion that the Browns are better or equal to the Cowboys everywhere except quarterback and WR1.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t jumped on either side at this price after liking the Browns earlier in the offseason. Perhaps we won’t get to -3.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jedrick Wills is out, while Jack Conklin is questionable after being limited all week. I’ll have no interest in betting the Browns if their two tackles are out versus Dallas’ elite edge rush.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on Jack Conklin news. I’ll have final thoughts around 3:45 Eastern.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jack Conklin is out, so I have no interest in betting the Browns with their two tackles missing against Dallas’ great edge rush. The sharps bet the Browns earlier in the week, but not at this -2.5 number. If you plan on betting the Browns, the best number is -2.5 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Browns -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Browns -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Everyone is betting the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 93% (131,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Kevin Stefanski is 14-20 ATS as a favorite.

Opening Line: Cowboys -1.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Sunny, 67 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.