2024 NFL Picks – Week 18: Browns at Ravens

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

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Week 17 Analysis: We had a winning Week 17, thanks to our player props. The picks were OK. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Chargers, 3 units (win): Why didn’t we bet more on the Chargers? This was such an easy pick. Though, as Cam Newton once said, hindsight is 50/50.

Rams, 3 units (loss): I was surprised that the Rams couldn’t block the Cardinals at all. Rob Havenstein was out, but one missing lineman shouldn’t have disrupted the entire offensive line. Also, it seemed as though the Rams were sluggish in this game, as they seemingly didn’t know that they’d effectively clinch playoff berth by winning.

Buccaneers, 3 units (push): Another 50/50 hindsight pick. This one was never in doubt.

Packers, 5 units (loss): I was shocked by Green Bay’s lack of effort in this game. The Packers constantly made stupid mistakes. I thought this game would mean something to them because they could have gotten the No. 5 seed, but apparently not.

Lions First Half, 5 units (loss): I was worried about the Lions sitting their starters in the second half, so I bet the first half. The 49ers went out to have their best offensive half of the year to start the game, and then collapsed in the second half. Detroit didn’t cover the first half, but covered for the entire game. I’m speechless.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Browns did a tremendous job on Lamar Jackson in the first meeting. Cleveland upset Baltimore, limiting the Ravens to just 24 points. Jackson threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns, but he was restricted to just 46 rushing yards.

The Browns see Jackson twice per season, so they know how to game plan for him, unlike NFC teams that are bewildered by Jackson whenever they play against him. Thanks to Myles Garrett, Cleveland has the talent at the edge to keep Jackson in the pocket.

Jackson likely won’t run for very much again this week, but he should once again have a strong performance as a passer. The Browns have allowed some big plays in the secondary, so Zay Flowers, who caught seven balls for 115 yards in the prior matchup, should once again have a great game.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Keeping Jackson in the pocket was part of the formula for the upset. The other part was Jameis Winston. The erratic quarterback was 27-of-41 for 334 yards and three touchdowns against the Ravens, taking advantage of their poor secondary.

If Winston were available, the Browns would likely have the same success again. However, that won’t be the case because the Browns have decided to tank by replacing Winston with Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who is the worst quarterback we’ve seen over the past couple of years. That’s not hyperbole because the data backs that up. Since 2020, among the 95 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 70 passes, Thompson-Robinson ranks dead last in EPA. The bottom five in that span, by the way, are 91. Spencer Rattler, 92. Trevor Siemian, 93. Jake Luton, 94. Trace McSorley, and 95. Thompson-Robinson.

The Ravens can be beaten via the pass, but not by someone as inept as Thompson-Robinson. Cleveland is likely to score in the single digits once again.

RECAP: This line may seem absurdly high, but I find myself wondering if this is just because of sticker shock. We haven’t seen lines of -18 or higher very often in the NFL. There have been 22 favorites of -18 or more dating back to 1989. Laying 18 used to be a foolish endeavor, as these massive favorites were 5-12 against the spread from 1989 to 2013.

However, things have changed. Because of limited practice time that was agreed upon during the previous collective bargaining agreement, inferior teams have gotten worse. So, it’s not a surprise that these huge favorites are 5-0 against the spread since 2014. If you don’t have your calculator handy, that would make favorites of -18 or more 10-12 against the spread overall.

I’m not one to base my selection off trends, but this just shows that you can pick massive favorites and expect good results. We’ll be doing that here because there’s no way Thompson-Robinson can compete with the Ravens.

Our Week 18 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward were DNP in both days of practice. If Garrett is out, that changes my whole thesis about the Browns being able to contain Lamar Jackson in the pocket. Also, it looks like there are four Ravens with illnesses on the practice report, which is a major red flag. Despite this, I don’t think I could bring myself to bet the Browns.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m betting Zay Flowers over receiving yards. The Browns have issues with the deep pass, and Flowers torched them last time. The best number is over 56.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

There unfortunately aren’t enough props available to make a viable same-game parlay.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line is so high. And yet, it’s warranted. This is Baltimore or nothing for me. I don’t want to bet the Ravens because some of the players have the flu, but I have no faith in the Browns scoring anything with Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Browns won’t have Denzel Ward or Dalvin Tomlinson. The Ravens have to be the play here, but I’m not betting them as a 20-point favorite. The sharps aren’t touching this one either. The best line is -20 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -17/5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A (there were no advance spreads this week).

Computer Model: Ravens -15.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

No edge found.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 54% (148,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

History: Ravens have won 25 of the last 33 meetings.

Lamar Jackson is 13-22 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+, not counting Week 1.

Opening Line: Ravens -17.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Sunny/clear, 31 degrees. MILD/HEAVY wind, 17 mph.