2024 NFL Picks – Week 18: Bengals at Steelers

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I’d give the Bengals a decent chance of stopping Pittsburgh’s scoring attack if George Pickens were sidelined again. Pickens came back from injury last week, however. While this didn’t translate to a victory, the Steelers were outmatched in their battle against Kansas City.

This is a far easier matchup for the Steelers, and we know that because we just saw it happen. Russell Wilson threw for 410 yards against the Bengals about a month ago. The Bengals just surrendered some deep connections from Bo Nix to Marvin Mims, so it would be a surprise if they were suddenly able to stop Wilson.

The Bengals are also weak against the run, so Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris figure to thrive whenever they touch the ball. The Steelers will be able to deploy this duo late in the game and keep the ball away from Cincinnati.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals kept pace with the Steelers for a while in the Week 13 matchup, but that changed in the second half when Pittsburgh’s defense came alive. T.J. Watt took over and disrupted several drives.

Cincinnati lost its right tackle to injury this past week, so Pittsburgh should be able to generate good heat on Burrow once again. Burrow, of course, will torch Pittsburgh’s defense on occasion because he’s been that good this season.

The Bengals’ right tackle wasn’t the only key player to go down last week, as Chase Brown exited with an injury as well. Brown was a do-it-all back for the Bengals, so he’ll sorely be missed if he can’t return to action. Backup Khalil Herbert is a quality runner, but he doesn’t come close to providing the sort of receiving threat out of the backfield that Brown was capable of being.

RECAP: Under normal circumstances, I’d like Pittsburgh’s losing streak to come to an end. The Steelers are the better team, and this is the first time they’re battling a team worse than Group B since taking on the Browns the second time. Meanwhile, the Bengals haven’t fared well against the upper echelon of the NFL. They’ve had seven games against Group A or Group B opponents, and they’re 0-7 straight up and 2-5 against the spread against them.

However, all of this will be moot if the Steelers rest their starters. Assuming the Ravens beat the Browns, the Steelers won’t have anything at stake, aside from perhaps aiming for the No. 5 seed. If the Steelers are stuck with the sixth seed, they’ll take on the Ravens again, which may not be the worst thing, knowing their history against them. However, the fifth seed allows Pittsburgh to go up against Houston.

I have no idea if the Steelers will rest their starters, making this game very difficult to handicap. I’m going to pencil in Cincinnati, but I’ll have updates if we have any clarity on this situation.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Chase Brown has yet to practice through two days. His absence wouldn’t be ideal, but it also won’t be a deal-breaker for me. Meanwhile, the Steelers have a completely clean injury report.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Bengals have one of the worst defenses against tight ends in the NFL. Pat Freiermuth had 60-plus receiving yards in the first meeting. The best number is over 34.5 receiving yards -113 at FanDuel.

We’re throwing in the Freiermuth over receiving yards into a same-game parlay with Jaylen Warren over 21.5 receiving yards, Ja’Marr Chase over 92.5 receiving yards, and Mike Gesicki over 29.5 receiving yards. Warren has been getting lots of targets lately. Chase should have a big game with everything on the line. And Gesicki had a big game versus the Steelers the first time. This $25 parlay pays $264.06 on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Unless we see one of the greatest upsets in NFL history, the Steelers won’t be able to win the division. However, they can still get the No. 5 seed, so they may fight the Bengals hard. If so, Pittsburgh will have a good chance to cover as a home underdog.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Chase Brown is out, but that won’t affect this handicap. I still lean toward the Bengals, but I have no desire to bet this game. The sharps haven’t touched this one either. The best line is -2 -110 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bengals.

The Steelers may sit their starters.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Bengals -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

Lots of money on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 67% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

History: Steelers have won 27 of the last 36 meetings.

Bengals are 21-10 ATS against the Steelers if they lost to them previously the same season in the last 31 instances.

Steelers are 44-22 ATS in December/January home games since 2000.

Mike Tomlin is 63-36 ATS as an underdog.

Mike Tomlin is 14-2 ATS after losing by 20+. ???

Opening Line: Bengals -2.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Clear, 21 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.