2024 NFL Picks – Week 18: Redskins at Cowboys

The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Jayden Daniels was incredible Sunday night. He ran circles around Atlanta’s defense, willing his team to victory in overtime.

I don’t know if we’ll get the same effort from Daniels in this game. A win would allow the Redskins to have the No. 6 seed and avoid the Eagles in the opening round of the playoffs, but I don’t quite see Daniels going all out just for seeding. Besides the Cowboys have excellent edge players who can contain Daniels in the pocket.

The Redskins might have success keeping the chains moving on the ground. Brian Robinson Jr. has a nice matchup, with the Cowboys ranking 24th in run defense. Robinson, however, isn’t quite being used enough, as Chris Rodriguez is siphoning way too many touches for some reason.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys had a horrific offensive showing last week. They scored a touchdown on their second drive following a pick-six, but didn’t put any points on the scoreboard after that. This wasn’t much of a surprise because CeeDee Lamb isn’t available anymore.

It’s generally a great idea to fade backup quarterbacks against top-12 defenses. The Redskins rank ninth in defensive EPA. They’re 12th in pressure rate, so they’ll be able to put heat on Cooper Rush, who could be forced into some turnovers again. This will leave Jerry Jones wondering why his inept coach failed to give Trey Lance a shot.

The only hope the Cowboys have of generating offense is establishing Rico Dowdle. Despite last week’s 41-7 loss, Dowdle somehow rushed for 100-plus yards against the Eagles. Dowdle will have an opportunity to match that total against Washington’s run-funnel defense.

RECAP: It’s unclear if the Redskins will use their starters. They’ve clinched playoff berth, but if they lose this game, they’ll risk falling to the No. 7 seed. That would mean battling the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs.

It would make sense for the Redskins to take this game seriously, but there’s a chance they won’t. They just beat the Eagles, and Jalen Hurts is concussed, so they may believe that being stuck with the No. 7 seed isn’t so bad.

I’ll be on the Redskins if they play their starters, and I’ll be on Dallas if the opposite is true. Hopefully we get an update soon.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t know if this is an indication that the Redskins will sit their starters, but they had 12 DNPs in practice on Wednesday. Be careful if you plan on betting them.

SATURDAY NOTES: Trey Lance will finally get significant reps this week. While this is the correct decision, it’s also one that works against the Cowboys. The Redskins should be able to win this easily. I’m going to put three units on Washington.

PLAYER PROPS: I don’t see anything I like in this game. How hard will the Redskins go? What will Dallas’ offense look like with Trey Lance?

LOCKED IN: This line has risen to -7 in many sportsbooks, but you can still get -6.5 -110 at FanDuel. I’m going to lock this in now before it disappears. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps hammered the Redskins earlier in the week. Most of the lines are now -7, but you can still get -6.5 -110 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: .

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Redskins -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Tons of action on the Redskins.

Percentage of money on Washington: 73% (86,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

History: Cowboys have won 13 of the previous 17 meetings.

Cowboys are 24-16 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.

Opening Line: Redskins -4.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.