2024 NFL Picks – Week 18: Chargers at Raiders

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers may not play their starters in this game. If they do, they won’t have an issue scoring on the Raiders. This is not same Las Vegas defense we saw at the beginning of the year that had Maxx Crosby, Christian Wilkins, and Malcolm Koonce. All three are on injured reserve.

Justin Herbert had a completely clean pocket against the Patriots last week. Justin Herbert had all day to throw on Saturday, and that will continue to be the case. The Raiders have issues in their secondary that Herbert will be able to exploit.

Herbert will also be able to lean on J.K. Dobbins, who made his return from injury last week. The Raiders are just in the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the run.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Strong tackle play is a prerequisite for playing against the Chargers. This is obvious because the Chargers have two elite pass rushers on the edge. Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack made life miserable for Drake Maye last week.

The Raiders have one great tackle in Kolton Miller, but his bookend won’t be able to block well in this game. D.J. Glaze is a stout run blocker, but his pass protection skills aren’t there yet. He doesn’t stand much of a chance in this game.

Las Vegas might have a chance to run on the Chargers, who have struggled against the run without Denzel Perryman. However, there’s a chance that Perryman may return this week if the Chargers believe that they need to win this game.

RECAP: The Chargers may play their starters depending on what happens on Saturday. If the Steelers lose to the Bengals, the Chargers will have a chance to capture the No. 5 seed by winning this game. Conversely, if the Steelers beat the Bengals, the Chargers will be stuck in the No. 6 seed, so they would likely sit their starters in that scenario.

This is a pick we can revisit on Saturday night. If the Steelers lose, I’ll be on the Chargers, though I imagine the line would move up. If the Steelers win, I’ll be on the Raiders, though I imagine the line would move down.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ladd McConkey was DNP with a toe injury on Wednesday. If this is even the slightest bit concerning, the Chargers could rest him. That would not be ideal if you’re asking the Chargers to cover a decent-sized number on the road.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ladd McConkey isn’t on the injury report. Denzel Perryman is doubtful, but it’s not like the Raiders can run the ball. The Chargers look like a good bet if the Steelers lose. I’ll have a major update on Sunday.

PLAYER PROPS: We may have to post something on this late Saturday night once we know if the Chargers will be playing their starters.

LOCKED IN: This spread has risen from -4.5 to -6.5 because the Steelers lost. The Chargers need to win to move to the No. 5 seed, allowing Jim Harbaugh to avoid his brother in the first round. I’m going to lock in -6.5 now just in case the line keeps climbing. The only -6.5 -110 is at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: I’m glad we locked in the -6.5 because this line has risen to -7.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Chargers won’t have Denzel Perryman, Rashawn Slater or Joshua Palmer, so perhaps this should have been a two-unit pick. The sharps bet the Chargers at a lower number (-4, -4.5). The best line is -7 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: N/A.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

All the money on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 86% (87,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Raiders have won 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Raiders are 38-56 ATS after a win since 2009.

Raiders are 5-14 ATS in the final week of the season since 2003.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.