2024 NFL Picks – Week 18: 49ers at Cardinals

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Brock Purdy could not be stopped on Monday night, at least in the first half. The 49ers moved the ball up and down the field on the hapless Detroit defense. Despite missing three offensive linemen, Purdy completed almost all of his passes until the middle of the third quarter.

The 49ers obviously have plenty of offensive talent, but what we may have seen was their offense simply taking advantage of one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Lions have no pass rush, so Purdy had all the time he needed to find open receivers. The Cardinals put a ton of pressure on Matthew Stafford last Saturday night, so perhaps they’ll have more success putting pressure on Joshua Dobbs, who will start in place of Purdy because of Purdy’s injured wrist.

It’s unlikely that the 49ers will have much luck running the ball either. Arizona surrendered a huge game to Chuba Hubbard two weeks ago, but dealt with the flu. The Cardinals put the clamps on Kyren Williams last week, so they should be able to bottle up Isaac Guerendo.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: While the 49ers offense was electric on Monday night, the defense was just as bad. They had no chance of stopping the Lions, though that is a difficult task.

The 49ers, like the Lions, have so many defensive injuries. They haven’t been able to stop tight ends this year, which is obviously a big problem against the Cardinals. Trey McBride finally scored a touchdown last week, so perhaps the floodgates will be open for his scoring potential.

San Francisco also had problems stopping Kyler Murray as a scrambler in the first meeting. With injuries at linebacker, this will continue to be the case. Murray played very well against the Rams last week, so he should continue to thrive in this matchup.

RECAP: I think there’s way too much of a spread overreaction to Purdy’s injury. The 49ers were -1 with Purdy, and they’re now +4 after the injury. There’s no way there’s a five-point difference between Purdy and Dobbs.

I like backing reserve quarterbacks against defenses ranked outside of the top 12. That happens to be the case with the Cardinals, who are 23rd in defensive EPA. Dobbs is a solid backup, and he has plenty of offensive firepower around him to thrive.

I’ll take the solid value with the 49ers at +4. Hopefully this spread continues to rise, and we get even more value at +6.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m not going to bet the 49ers. They went all out against the Lions, so they could be deflated. They also have a ton of injuries, even beyond Brock Purdy. Nick Bosa and George Kittle are in danger of missing this game as well.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m going to be betting the Cardinals. The 49ers just played their Super Bowl and lost. Now, they’ll be without Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, at least three offensive linemen, Dre Greenlaw, and several defensive backs, and that’s not even including the players who were already on injured reserve. The Cardinals fought hard last week and could treat this game similarly.

PLAYER PROPS: Someone has to explain why Ricky Pearsall’s receiving yards prop is only 33.5. I guess it’s priced as if Deebo Samuel will be active, but he’s been ruled out. Pearsall will be the No. 2 receiver, so I like his chances of being productive once again. The best number is over 33.5 receiving yards -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: It’ll be interesting to see what San Francisco’s inactives look like. Will there be some surprise players who won’t be available?

FINAL THOUGHTS: George Kittle and Nick Bosa will play, as no one unexpected was declared inactive for the 49ers. The sharps bet the Cardinals. The best line is -4.5 -105 at ESPNBet.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Cardinals -5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 55% (80,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: 49ers have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Opening Line: 49ers -1.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.