2024 NFL Picks – Week 18: Bears at Packers

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Minnesota fans will yell at me for this, but the effort wasn’t there for Green Bay last week. It looked like the Packers were going through the motions for most of the afternoon. Josh Jacobs lost a fumble, the team committed many unforced penalties, and “No Cookie” Jordan Love constantly threw off his back foot.

Provided Jacobs plays this week – more on that in a bit – the Packers should be able to run all over the Chicago. The Bears have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so Jacobs will be able to make amends for last week’s fumble.

Jacobs’ great running will put the Packers in constant short-yardage situations. Love will take advantage of this by spreading the ball around. Tucker Kraft has the best matchup of all of his weapons.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears won’t have as much success running the ball. D’Andre Swift had a great start to the year, but only because he found himself in so many favorable matchups. It’s been tough sledding for Swift lately, as he’s dealt with so many stalwart run defenses of late.

The Packers qualify as a team that has an excellent run defense. Swift’s inability to move the chains will only make things more difficult for Caleb Williams, who looks completely lost right now.

The Bears would have a chance to turn things around if they had a viable head coach and an offensive coordinator, but they lack both of those because they promoted their interim offensive coordinator to interim head coach, spreading things too thin for him.

RECAP: It’s unclear if the Packers will play their starters. They’ve clinched playoff berth, but they’re currently the No. 7 seed. They may want to play hard to ensure that they move up to the No. 6 seed so they can avoid the Eagles in the first round. Then again, that would require the Redskins losing to the Cowboys.

If the Packers play their starters, they’ll dismantle the Bears. Chicago has an interim head coach and no offensive coordinator, which would explain why the team has scored 13, 1, 17, and 3 points ever since firing Matt Eberflus. The interim head coach is completely overwhelmed and spread too thin to function correctly.

However, if Green Bay decides to sit its starters, the Bears will be the obvious play. Hopefully we get some clear updates soon.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Packers were bet up to -10 by someone who has no concerns about them sitting their starters in the second half. I wouldn’t be so confident. Then again, I’m the goof who played the Lions in the first half instead of the full game last week.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears will once again be down three offensive linemen, so it’s hard to imagine them producing anything offensively. I’m going to be betting the Packers despite the possibility that they bench their starters at some point.

PLAYER PROPS: This is tough for props because the Packers could sit their starters in the second half if the Redskins are way ahead.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Romeo Doubs is out, but the Packers will get Christian Watson back. The sharps haven’t bet this game. The best line is -10 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -9.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Packers -12.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Lots of money on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 81% (75,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 20 of the last 22 meetings.

Bears are 22-44 ATS in December road games the previous 66 instances.

Packers are 42-24 ATS in December/January home games since 2000.

Packers are 67-44 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Matt LaFleur is 58-40 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -9.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 17 degrees. Light wind.