2024 NFL Picks – Week 18: Dolphins at Jets

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: It’s currently unknown if Tua Tagovailoa will play. Miami’s quarterback missed Sunday’s game with a hip injury. He wasn’t needed versus the Browns, but his presence will be required for the Dolphins to have a good chance of beating the Jets.

Given the regression of the Miami offensive line, stemming from last offseason’s departures, the Dolphins have transformed from a team that constantly took deep shots downfield to a pair of dynamic receivers to a team that dinks and dunks. Tagovailoa gets the ball into the hands of his dynamic play-makers as quickly as possible and allows them to do all the work.

This sets up poorly for the Jets because they are among the league leaders in missed tackles this year, which should surprise no one. The only teams that have missed more tackles this season are the Colts and the Raiders.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s almost hard to believe now, but Aaron Rodgers had been playing better entering last week’s game. Beginning with the first meeting against the Dolphins, Rodgers had some quality performances, beating the Jaguars and nearly taking down the Dolphins and Rams. This positivity came to an end last week when the Bills thoroughly embarrassed the Jets, who scored no points until garbage time when Rodgers was benched.

Rodgers will get one final start with the Jets. I suspect it’ll be better than it was last week. The Dolphins are in the bottom 10 of pressure rate, so they won’t be able to expose the issues on the offensive line like the Bills just did.

Also, Miami is below average against the run, ranking 18th in that department. The Jets will be able to successfully deploy Breece Hall this week after he failed to generate anything in the blowout defeat versus Buffalo.

RECAP: Here’s our third Aurora Snowmo game of the week. The Dolphins need to win to have a chance to reach the playoffs. Everyone expects them to prevail, especially after the complete and utter embarrassment from the Jets in their blowout loss against the Bills.

This is a perfect opportunity to fade a must-win team. The Dolphins have some major issues, especially with Tagovailoa enduring a hip injury. Meanwhile, the Jets are definitely live to win. They nearly beat Miami the first time they played them. In fact, the Jets had a big lead and blew it in the second half, ultimately losing in overtime.

This can be classified as the Jets’ Super Bowl. They’d love nothing more than to knock out a divisional rival out of the playoffs. They must also want to make amends for Sunday’s blowout loss to the Bills.

As far as this spread is concerned, I’m hoping we get a +3 with the Jets if it’s announced that Tagovailoa will play. If Tagovailoa is out, however, that would remove the Aurora Snowmo effect because the Dolphins would no longer be expected to win.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tua Tagovailoa was limited in Wednesday’s practice. It was nice that he practiced at all, but he missed last week’s game after being limited during all three practices, so we didn’t really learn anything from the injury report.

SATURDAY NOTES: It saddens me to say this, but the Dolphins are no longer an Aurora Snowmo team. This is because Tua Tagovailoa is doubtful. The Dolphins are no longer expected to win with Tyler Huntley at quarterback. I’m off the Jets.

PLAYER PROPS: We always talk about stat incentives in Week 18. This isn’t quite an incentive, but Davante Adams is looking for a new contract, and I have to believe Aaron Rodgers will want his friend to have one. Adams went 9-109 in the prior meeting, so he should be able to go over this low total. The best number is over 66.5 receiving yards -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: This is no longer an Aurora Snowmo game because the Dolphins are no longer favored. Miami looks more appealing as an underdog.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Jets will be without two of their top three cornerbacks. The Dolphins look even better, though the sharps disagree because they’re on the Jets. You can now get +1.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No longer Aurora Snowmo Game No. 3.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Dolphins -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Public on the Dolphins, sharps on the Jets.

Percentage of money on Miami: 74% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Dolphins have won 12 of the last 14 meetings.

Aaron Rodgers is 133-98 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 31-24 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 42-28 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Aaron Rodgers is 5-4 ATS as a home underdog.

Opening Line: Dolphins -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Chance of snow, 35 degrees. MILD/HEAVY wind, 15 mph.