2024 NFL Picks – Week 18: Saints at Buccaneers

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 44-38 ATS through 16 weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Lions -3.5

Chargers -5.5

Colts -7.5

Seahawks -4

The public split their bets. The public is now 46-40.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Buccaneers -13

Packers -8.5

Eagles -3

Chargers -5.5

Texans +1

The public is backing some teams that could sit their starters.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: This was a tough matchup for the Buccaneers last year. They scored just 13 points versus New Orleans late last season. Things have certainly flipped, as the Buccaneers exploded for 51 points in the prior battle versus New Orleans this year.

The Saints just don’t have the manpower to deal with the Buccaneers. Things were much different when Marshon Lattimore was on the roster because he typically had his way with Mike Evans. He’s gone now, and New Orleans’ secondary has been otherwise ravaged by injury. Aidan O’Connell just threw all over New Orleans, so Mayfield figures to have another explosive performance.

The only way Mayfield doesn’t go off against the Saints is if he doesn’t have to do so. The Saints also can’t stop the run whatsoever. They just allowed Ameer Abdullah to have a career game against them, and earlier in the season, Sean Tucker went ballistic during the prior matchup. Bucky Irving has been tremendous since taking over the primary back role, and he could easily rush for nearly 200 yards in this contest, if given the chance to do so.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: If you read my Ravens-Browns write-up, you may have noticed Spencer Rattler’s name. I listed the bottom five quarterbacks since 2020 in terms of EPA. Dorian Thompson is the worst among 95 qualifiers. Rattler ranks 91st, finishing ahead of only Thompson-Robinson, Trace McSorley, Jake Luton, and Trevor Siemian.

The Buccaneers have some major problems in the secondary that will be exploited in the playoffs. They won’t be exploited this week, however. Rattler simply isn’t good enough. Todd Bowles dominates terrible quarterbacks, and his defense is great at limiting mobile signal-callers on the ground. Rattler will struggle mightily.

It would be helpful for the Saints if they could turn to a running game, but that won’t be possible. First of all, Alvin Kamara isn’t even available, and second, the Buccaneers are stellar versus ground attacks as long as Vita Vea is on the field.

RECAP: It’s time to summon Aurora Snowmo. This is a phenomenon I’ve written about a long time on this site. It has to do with teams choking in obvious must-win games at the end of the season.

Aurora Snowmo is a combination of Aurora Snow and Tony Romo. The latter was known for choking when he played for the Cowboys – at least in the early stages of the year – and Aurora Snow is, well, someone you should only Google if you’re by yourself.

The Buccaneers are in an Aurora Snowmo game. This is a must-win game for them. Everyone expects them to prevail. Yet, the Saints are going to give it their all to make sure that doesn’t happen, much like the Giants with the Colts last week.

Having said that, I can’t really advocate for any sort of bet on the Saints, given how utterly miserable Rattler happens to be. It’s more likely that Aurora Snowmo doesn’t show up in this game, and Tampa Bay wins easily.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I heard some speculation that Derek Carr and Chris Olave may try to play in this game, which would be a hilarious F-U to their rivals. Olave practiced fully on Wednesday, but Carr was DNP.

SATURDAY NOTES: So much for Derek Carr playing. He’s out, as is Alvin Kamara. Chris Olave could play, but I don’t think it makes much of a difference with how bad Spencer Rattler has been. Then again, the Buccaneers won’t have Jamel Dean or Antoine Winfield.

PLAYER PROPS: Mike Evans has incentives tied to this game. Baker Mayfield does as well, so Mayfield will throw to Evans a ton. The line is inflated, but it’s inflated for a reason. The best number is over 99.5 receiving yards -120 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Chris Olave will not return, so that obviously makes things easier for the Buccaneers. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is Buccaneers -14.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

Aurora Snowmo game No. 1.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -13.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -11.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Is anyone betting New Orleans?

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 85% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Saints have won 18 of the last 27 meetings.

Road Team is 141-100 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 44-74 ATS at home in the previous 118 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -14.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 71 degrees. Light wind.