2024 NFL Picks – Week 18: Jaguars at Colts

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It was predictable that Indianapolis’ receivers would be productive with Joe Flacco replacing Anthony Richardson. The athletic quarterback missed last week’s game with back spasms, so Flacco stepped in and led the Colts to a 33-point performance. Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce both had great performances, as they were unlocked with Richardson sidelined.

Back spasms are no joke, so it’s unclear if Richardson will be able to play. Trust me, I’ve dealt with back spasms since my mid-20s, and it’s brutal. Granted, I’m not the athlete Richardson is – though I would strongly argue that it’s fairly close – so Richardson could return this week. By Richardson returning, the Colts would trade receiver production with an enhanced running game.

So, what’s better for this matchup? It’s actually a trick question because it doesn’t matter. The Jaguars have an atrocious defense and can’t stop anything. They’re woeful versus the run and the pass, so the Colts should be able to move the chains against them no matter what.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Thirty-three points should have been enough for the Colts, but it wasn’t. The Giants scored 45 points against them in one of the most embarrassing performances of all time. And that is not hyperbole. According to EPA, Drew Lock had the sixth-best performance of any quarterback dating back to 1999, trailing only 2007 Tom Brady, 2012 Peyton Manning, and some others. That’s right – Indianapolis was so bad that it allowed Lock to play at a Hall of Fame level.

Of course, it wasn’t just Lock. The Colts were guilty of so many missed tackles, including two on Malik Nabers during a long touchdown. This wasn’t a surprise because Indianapolis has the most missed tackles in the NFL. However, we recently saw the Colts clamp down on the Titans, limiting them to seven points before garbage time, so the unit can play well.

The Jaguars don’t have much of an offense anyway. Mac Jones has been an interception machine in the red zone, and he only has one weapon at his disposal. The Jaguars likely won’t be able to run the ball either because Indianapolis ranks sixth against ground attacks.

RECAP: The Colts completely embarrassed themselves last week. All they had to do was beat the Giants and Jaguars and hope for Denver to slip up to secure a playoff spot, but they couldn’t even do the former. The Giants took it to the Colts, scoring 45 points.

The Colts are eliminated, so some might believe that they don’t have anything to play for. Perhaps that’s correct, but I don’t believe that to be true. I think they’ll be playing for pride after such a humiliating showing. There is precedent for this, as the Cardinals showed up and went all out versus the Rams last Saturday night after being eliminated. Losing to the Panthers was embarrassing for them, so they gave full effort. I believe we’ll see the same thing with the Colts this week.

If I’m right, the Colts should be a top play. We’re getting the much better team – Group C versus Group F – with a motivational edge at a reduced spread. Indianapolis checks all the boxes at -5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Anthony Richardson was DNP on Wednesday, but it’s too early to make a determination about his status. By the way, I had a nice debate with Evan about this game on the After Dark Show if you want to listen and hit the subscribe button!

SATURDAY NOTES: Just like last week, the Colts line has dropped a point going from Anthony Richardson to Joe Flacco. I guess the sportsbooks didn’t see my breakdown of quarterbacks since 2020 where Richardson ranks 89th out of 95 qualifiers. I’d rather have Joe Flacco on the field as a Colts backer, and yet we’re getting a better number!

PLAYER PROPS: Michael Pittman Jr. seems easy once again. The prop is priced as if Anthony Richardson is the quarterback. The best number is over 51.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

Like last week, I’m going to ladder this at 70+ and 90+. Pittman 70+ is +195 at Draftings, and Pittman 90+ is +400 at DraftKings.

LOCKED IN: I’m locking in the Colts -3 -113 at Bookmaker. The sharps have bet this down too far. I don’t know how long the rare -3s will stick around, but I’m going to bet it now. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Jaguars won’t have Josh Allen, which is great news. I love the Colts, but the sharps are on the other side. I don’t know why the sharps have been betting the Jaguars, but the sharps have been awful this year. We locked this in already, but the best current line is -3.5 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

The Colts will be looking to play for pride.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -7.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Colts -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 59% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Home Team has won 13 of the last 14 meetings.

Opening Line: Colts -5.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.